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An investment portfolio currently worth $125m (my estimate) plus 5x earnings of $5m gets you to $150m.
That's $108 per share.
At
I will keep an eye on it. There is the question of taxes on investment gains so I will wait for a further dip.
I notice that the stock is correcting and wondering where it trades in relation to conservative fair value.
I appreciate your thoughts.
There was a recent compelling analysis on KWK that arrives at a much lower value for its assets than you do in your article. I was wondering if you had seen it and what your thoughts were?
You can find it here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1310661-quicksilver-resources-25-barnett-sale-is-a-positive-but-challenges-remain
- A heap of cash
- No debt
- buying back shares
- consis
Have a good one
Karl
Some good ideas are FBN, SPLS, SD and BBRY.
Any good ones you found recently?
I went back and had a look at my original article. I did say the cash was being expensed. I shouldn't have.
Having said that, I do believe GAAP earnings understate current owner earnings.
I think of WU as a distributor selling dollars to foreign governments. The governments, through their post office networks do the actual retailing.
WU hands $150m to the government of say Sri Lanka. You can bet your bottom dollar that those dollars are never going to be returned to WU. Ever.
Any ordinary distributor would recognize that revenue then and there. At 45% gross margins. WU doesn't.
In the second stage, the government of Sri Lanka (through its national post office) makes sure the dollars are "retailed". There's one catch, they will hand the locals local currency (the type they print themselves) and they get to keep the dollars for themselves.
Of course, they are going to charge a high exchange rate. They have an incentive to get rid of their "inventory" of dollars as fast as possible. Once they have accounted for each dollar by "selling" a given amount of local currency, they get to call WU for a fresh truckload of dollars.
Meanwhile, back in the US, WU is collecting fresh dollars from migrant workers. Migrants need to fork over an X amount of dollars each time the family back home gets some local currency.
It's clear to me that the governments of developing nations are not going to kill this franchise. The local distribution system may become digital but that is of no consequence to WU. The governments have millions of reasons to keep the fundamentals of this "retail" operation intact.
There's not going to be a free flow of dollars into developing economies. Paypal, Google and/or Vodafone are not going to circumvent that without breaking the law.
Just some thoughts.
I have seen your discussion on WU on this site....Very insightful but am intrigued by one aspect.
You had mentioned that WU deposits a large amount of US$ to an agent, which it expenses immediately and thus the net income hasn't grown as much in the last few years as the company spends money to grow the business.
However, reading the 10K I find that the amount given at the time of sign-up with the agents is actually amortized and not expensed right away. This stands contradictory to what you have stated.
Could you let me know why you think the net income numbers are understated?
Again, your comments are much appreciated.
Lakeside
I am an investor in Gencor industries and have been so for the past two years. I have added to my position and i am planning to add a bit more. I wonder if you have kept up with your analysis of the company and if you have written any more recent articles on it. Do you own shares?
Thanks for your time.
Anyway, sorry about the late reply. I seldom check my gurufocus inbox.
Actually, I bumped into some of your posts occasionally and found them insightful.
Btw, when did our paths cross? I don't write for gurufocus.
Just sent you a half-baked message..... sorry.
I would like "friend" you. You have some interesting ideas and a nice style.
regar
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2012/05/natural-gas-prices.html
I had to do an explicit refresh of the home page "CMD + R", my bad.
regards,
Batbeer
Thanks for reporting this. I just installed Google Chrome on OSX Lion. It seems I could not find the problem.
Could you help to try "Clear browsing Data"? Click menu "Chrome->Clear browsing Data". Check "Clear browsing history" and "Empty the cache" and click "Clear Browsing Data" button.
Then refresh gurufocus homepage to see.
Please let me know if you still have the problem.
Thanks a lot!
Don
GuruFocus.com Developer
Mine took about a three weeks.
regards,
Batbeer2
Do you have any idea how long it takes for google to accept the google adsense account ? My account is on hold since Feb 8.
Regards,
-Ch
In October I had a similar problem.
In January it went away.
Is your information current ?
regards,
Batbeer2
Recently, I was interested in Piramal Glass but could not yet find a solution for trading in India. I would appreciate if you could share more details on this topic.
Apparently at Interactive Brokers (whom I use) one cannot trade in India unless possesses a PAN card. To obtain a PAN card (http://www.incometaxindia.gov.in/archive/form49ae.pdf)
one needs a Representative Assessee (https://tin.tin.nsdl.com/pan/RepresentativeAssesseeITAct.html).
IB told me they cannot help so I was not able to trade in India.
This is a nice one, if you did not read it already.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/159243/the-ten-commandments-of-business-failure