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Ben Strubel  Ben Strube

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  • Ben Strubel commented on Ben Strubel's article 02-02 14:40
    10 Reasons to Buy Stocks in the Downturn
    The month isn’t over yet, but it looks like the S&P 500 (SPY) is off to the worst monthly start as far back as I’ve seen data (1950). While I...
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    Ben Strubel 02-02 14:40
    • I am not worried about the Shiller P/E for several reasons the most important of which you cited in your blog post. It goes back to the 1800s! It just isn't very relevant to use data from that time period and compare it to modern era valuations. Second and also important is that the Shiller P/E does not seem to have good predictive power or signal value. If I remember correctly it was still showing stocks as overvalued even during the depths of 2008-2009. I agree on theory with Robert Shiller's idea of trying to adjust for the business cycle and to take a longer term view of valuations and expected returns. He's a smart guy with a great idea but I think in it's current form the Shiller PE falls short of his goals and is of quite limited use. He's done great work before so I hope he tries to make some adjustments to it to improve it's utility.
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