This is the third article in our Guru Insider Research series. We have found that aggregated insider trading activities can predict the market and help investors locate the market bottoms during market crashes. The question we like to answer here: Can aggregated insider trading activities in a sector predict the future market return in this sector?
These are the links to the previous two articles
- Guru Insider Research (I): The Summary of Previous Research Results
- Guru Insider Research (II): Can Aggregated Insider Trading Activities Predict the Market?
In the second article we have found that insiders as a whole are not only smart sellers, but also insider buyers. The ratio of insider buys over insider sells can serve as a good indicator for market bottoms. In this article we like to show that this conclusion can also be applied to the market sectors.
We have studied the aggregated insider trading activities within the different sectors. The sector insider trading activities are compared with the ETF in this sector. These are the sectors and the corresponding ETFs.
| ETF|| Sectors|
|XLE||Oil & Gas|
As shown in the broad market, the ratios of aggregated buys to sells in different sectors show that this ratio can predict the returns in the sectors, too. These are the ratios and the corresponding sector ETFs from 2004 to current.
Sector: Oil & Gas
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector: Consumer Goods
Sector: Health Care
Sector: Consumer Services
We can see that the ratios of the aggregated insiders buying over selling do reflect their confidence in the future sector returns, and the ratios reach maximum when the best buying opportunities come.
GuruFocus is developing new features for idea generations and broad market indications based on the insider activities. These features will be released soon to subscribers. In the meantime, you can access insider related features:
- All Insider Buys
- CEO Buys/Sells
- CFO Buys/Sells
- Insider Cluster Buys
- Guru & Insider Double Buys
- Triple Buys