Get ready for the China collapse. Virtually every major media outlet has weighed in with dire reports that the Chinese economic miracle is about to come to an abrupt end. These Chicken Littles note that any strong asset class that looks like a bubble must come crashing down. In the United States it happened with dot-com stocks, it happened in the housing market -- and it will surely happen in China. Or so they say.
Never mind that Chinese economic figures show few signs of cooling. Or that Chinese consumers are joining the middle class at a fast pace. Or that these consumers are buying up goods and services out of their savings rather than the U.S. predilection for debt-fueled spending binges.
Slowing Down From Warp Speed
That's not to say China doesn't face some challenges. Too many office buildings have been built, which will lead to some troubles for the banking sector. And the European economic slowdown is crimping exports. So it's not likely that China will maintain the robust growth rates of +8% to +10% exhibited during the last five years.
But even an economy that grows at a steady +4% to +5% pace would still represent a great opportunity for global investors. And China is unlikely to cool much below that rate. The country's decade long run of rising cash reserves allows the government to stimulate its way out of any unexpected speed bumps. The key is to further develop domestic consumption by continuing to create the conditions that bring more workers into the middle class. That's good for China -- and its trading partners.
We screened for a list of U.S.-listed Chinese companies that are worth at least $200 million. We then narrowed the list to companies that trade for the lowest forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. The results are in the following table.
|Company (Ticker)||Market Cap. ($mill.)||7/20/10 Price||Cash/Share||2010 P/E||2011 P/E|
|China Security |
|China Gerui Materials (Nasdaq: CHOP)||222||$5.17||$2.56||5.4||4.6|
|Yongye International (Nasdaq: YONG)||336||$7.55||$1.14||7.6||5.2|
|Fushi Copperweld |
|A-Power Energy |
|Cogo Group |
|China XD Plastics |
|Shanda Games |
|Deer Consumer Products (Nasdaq: DEER)||253||$7.69||$2.31||10.3||8.0|
- China Security & Surveillance (NYSE: CSR), which is helping Chinese authorities to beef up security in dozens of mid-sized and large Chinese cities. For those who can stomach the Orwellian nature of the business model, know that social unrest is one of the biggest concerns of the Chinese government, and officials are spending accordingly. That price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) below five is quite unusual. The multiple may be in for an upgrade when the company reports quarterly results next Monday, July 26.
- A-Power Energy (Nasdaq: APWR) has emerged as a leading provider of alternative energy systems in China. And plans call for spending on green energy to keep climbing at a fast clip, regardless of how the broader economy fares. Earnings are likely to be flat this year, but could move +30% higher next year. The P/E multiple of just six times next year's projected profits is a stark reminder of just how unloved these stocks are.
- Deer Consumer Products (Nasdaq: DEER) is a pure play on consumer spending, as the company makes a range of counter-top kitchen appliances for the Chinese and export markets. Profit estimates have been steadily rising for Deer for much of the last year, yet shares trade for half of the 52-week high.
-- David Sterman
David Sterman has worked as an investment analyst for nearly two decades. He started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at Individual Investor and has made numerous media appearances over the years, primarily on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. David has a master's degree in management from Georgia Tech. Read More...