Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management was widely recognized as the guy who called the March 2009 low. In early July, he also called the low of the year was in. A little more than one month later, he seems to be ready to switch side. Granted, the stock market has climbed about 10% after he made his call and the economic data that were reported lately seem to point towards a weak recovery.
His argument for a less bullish case:
”It seems the ambiguity of the economic soft patch is growing daily, It’s being reinforced with factory orders, pending home sales, and of course same store sales.”
”I’m concerned that as we move away from the jobs report that a reduction in inventories -- and other economic releases -- points to a second quarter revision in GDP to under 2%.”
”I think that’s going to scare people and the economic outlook into the second half of 2010 looks increasingly uncertain. I’d be de-risking.”
However, he thinks the July 1st low of the market will not be breached:
”I don’t think the low of July 1 will be revisited in the months ahead the hyperbole surrounding the double dip in the economy has abated.”
Personally I find changing position in a matter of one month puzzling.