Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number
MDT is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 16.1% discount to its calculated fair value of $38.78. MDT earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
MDT earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. MDT earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1977 and has increased its dividend payments for 33 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA
MDT earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,106. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as this company. If MDT grows its dividend at 9.4% per year, it will take 4 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.71%. MDT earned a check for the Key Metric ‘Years to >MMA’ since its 4 years is less than the 5 year target.
Memberships and Competitors: MDT is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. MDT’s peer group includes: Bard C.R. (BCR) with a 0.9% yield, Baxter International (BAX) with a 2.6% yield and Becton Dickinson (BDX) with a 2.1% yield.
Conclusion: MDT earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks MDT as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $41.65 before MDT’s NPV MMA Differential increased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 33 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.16%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 7.0%. This dividend growth rate is well below the 9.4% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. MDT has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.
MDT owns a diversified portfolio with a strategy to develop products for a wide range of chronic diseases. Although it is exposed to the highly competitive areas of the medical equipment markets, MDT enjoys many competitive advantages including scale (operations and sales), product breadth and financial strength, with a free cash flow payout of 28% and debt to total capital of 39%. The company is well-positioned for future development in disease management. MDT is currently trading more than 15% below my fair value price of $38.78. This company has a lot of promise, as such, I will continue to evaluate it for a place in my portfolio. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in MDT (0.0% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.
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