1- Business Performance Risk
|FCF / Sales||Last twelve months (LTM): 9.8%, lower than 2009 performance at 17%, but higher than ‘08/’07 performance in the 5%-6%|
|ROE||LTM: 13.8%, similar to experience over the previous couple of years|
|ROA||LTM: 4.0%, in line with previous years performance ranging between 3% and 5%|
|Revenue Growth||Over the last 3 years, the business grew 5% overall but revenue appear to be highly cyclical, with a drop of 10% in 2009, an LTM performance of +13%|
|Cash distribution to shareholders|| Very high dividend yield of 4.5% on a payout of 65-70%! |
The number of outstanding shares as increased on the market, diluting shareholder, by ~2% over the last 3 years.
In terms of returns, SE pays more than 60% of earnings in dividends (I prefer companies to stay below a 50-60% payout ratio). In addition to dividends, the company would need the reminder of earnings to finance a 5% growth (using a 15% ROE) and would thus not have money to do buybacks. It actually turns out that with free cash flow being less than net income, SE has and will have to add more shares in the future to continue paying its dividend and financing its growth.
2- Balance Sheet Risk
|LT Debt / Equity||1.2x, in line with previous 3 years|
|Current Ratio||0.5x, in line with previous 3 years|
3- Valuation Risk
|P/E||14.4x, in line with the S&P at 13.7x, and below industry average of 16.8x|
Cyclical business with low returns, highly levered balance sheet and far from being cheap with average P/E and very low cash returns. No thank you!
Have you looked at SE recently? What was your conclusion?
You can find more one-page “Stock Reviews” as well as more in-depth “Stock Analysis”, including a pdf-ed copy of my spreadsheets on my blog: Margin of Safety Investing.
Many happy returns!