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Sayonara Japan - saying "good bye" to Japanese stocks

December 02, 2010 | About:
Jake Berzon

Jake Berzon

1 followers
The time has come for me to admit that buying EWJ (an exchange traded index fund of large Japanese stocks) three years ago was a mistake. Much of the rise in EWJ over the past six months was the function of the appreciating Yen, which hit a 15 year high against the $US about a month ago. It was not, however, due to underlying stocks rallying in Yen terms.

As I have previously written, I am looking for $US to appreciate over the next six months. Down the road, the corresponding weakness in the Yen will be good for the large Japanese exporters, which are well represented in EWJ. However, any strength in underlying stocks will likely be lost once translated to $US.

Furthermore, Japan's economic future is now far from certain - two decades of deflation, aging demographics, huge government debt and dwindling personal savings are not helping. And so I am concerned that once the world gets over troubles in Europe, and especially in the unlikely event that Bernanke and the Fed are reasonably successful in the meantime reflating the US consumer economy by stoking inflation, all attention will turn to the much bigger problem that is Japan.

This eventuality carries a sizable downside risk for Japanese equities and without a correspondingly large upside potential, I see no reason to stay in Japan. The choice to jump ship before the end of the year is motivated by my desire to minimally offset unusually large capital gains I have taken earlier in the year, when it looked certain that the capital gains tax reduction we enjoyed in recent years would be no more. Now that chances for an extension in preferential treatment of capital gains beyond 2010 are much brighter, reducing current year’s tax burden makes more sense.

I ridded my portfolio almost entirely of exposure to Japan by selling my entire EWJ position today at $10.39 /share. My total loss in EWJ including dividends, but ignoring commissions over the little more than three years that I was in it is 21.1%.

Jake Berzon

http://stockvalues.org

About the author:

Jake Berzon
Visit my blog on http://stockvalues.org

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Comments

w1omega
W1omega - 3 years ago
Jake, appreciate the honest and straight forward assessment. Do you see any other trends? It seems like El-Erian of Pimco and Jeremy Grantham are predicting a hiccup (prices going down in the short-run) in emerging markets although they have no idea when. I have no idea what they are basing it on. Maybe they are scared about Chinese economy.
stockvalues
Stockvalues - 3 years ago
I am with Pimco and GMO, thinking that stocks (and not just emerging economy stocks) will be looking to correct down from here. China probably needs to correct more than the rest. This is not only warranted by the fundamentals, but also technical signals are pointing in the same direction.

But just because something has to happen, it doesn't mean that it will and as investors, the best we can do is play the odds. Unfortunately, my crystal ball reading abilities are no better than the true Gurus, so I can't help you with timing. Generally and longer term, I believe stocks will be trading in a relatively narrow range, i.e. I don't expect Dow 20,000 in a long, long time.

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