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Moningstar's Josh Perters Recommends Paychex

December 16, 2010 | About:

guruek

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Jeremy Glaser of Morningstar.com talked to Josh Peters, Editor of Morningstar DividendInvestor about the potential of rising interest rates in the future and the impact that could have on dividend paying stocks.

One stock Josh Perters recommended is Paychex:

The other thing that I would look at is trying to find situations that are more driven by dividend growth perhaps than high current yield. One of my favorite names that falls in this category, one of my favorite names period is Paychex, the small business payroll processor.

Now, a lot of people look at its four plus percent yield and say that's looks really great, but what about that 90% payout ratio. Doesn't that mean the dividend could be cut? Actually, Paychex is a business that is so efficient with its capital, needs to reinvest so little in order to grow that it gears itself towards 75% payout ratio even under normal times. They have no long-term debt, a lot of cash, very good cash flow that covers the dividend even better than earnings does. There is plenty of reasons to think that the dividend is safe.

If we start thinking about growth, Paychex's earnings are really driven by three factors; one is, small business employment because they charge per check; the second is, how much are they able to charge for a check. We think Paychex is a wide moat business it's hard for customers to just switch easily payroll providers on a dime. So we figure that they'll be able to raise prices at least as fast as inflation; and then the third is interest rates. They actually make money, interest income on the funds that represent uncashed payroll checks. So, it's essentially money that is free to them. It's called float.

These three forces are all cyclically aligned in that. If the economy is picking up and yet maybe that comes with higher inflation in interest rates, but Paychex's earnings probably start to grow pretty fast and the dividend probably starts to grow again. It probably won't be the very rapid growth that it's had in the past, but the last two years the company hasn't raised its dividend. I think next year or even as early as next year if the economy cooperates, we can start to see Paychex's dividend rise again.


Watch the video:



Read the full transcript at Morningstar.com.

About the author:

guruek
Saj Karsan founded an investment and research firm that is based on the principles of value investing. He has an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business, and an undergraduate engineering degree from McGill University.

Rating: 2.6/5 (11 votes)

Comments

halis
Halis - 3 years ago
I won't argue that Paychex is a great business, because it really is. But if he is saying that PAYX is a great investment from a value perspective, that's a joke.
roke6362
Roke6362 - 3 years ago
I wouldn't define PAYX as a "high moat" business, as its main competitor is the undisputed industry leader.

I own a small business, and use ADP. I received a quote from PAYX in the past 6 months. I decided to stay with ADP, but it would have been easy to change. Plus, it is easy for either company to reduce rates to keep a customer.

I think PAYX is a good investment based on the bottoming of the economy, no debt, and a high dividend yield. However, this is a very competitive business and it is easy to switch if the price is right. To maintain a payout ratio of 75% or higher, your moat better be massive.

Therefore, if you're a dividend investor, this may not be the company for you.
pravchaw
Pravchaw premium member - 3 years ago
Assuming a 10% eps growth and 8% discount - the fair value is around $38.00. Morningstar projects around the same fair value. PAYX is highly leveraged to the economy. So as Josh say's if the economy cooperates we could see a 25% upside in the next year or so. Meanwhile you are getting paid to wait. However any dividend increase would lag earning acceleration. I also like PAYX because it has zero debt. About as close to a bond as you can get.

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