A two point Bull case for Coffee

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Feb 26, 2011
The cumulative opening stocks of exporting nations in the world is at a 46 year low of 12.9 million bags while high being 85.8 million bags way back in 1966 and second high being 81 million bags in 1967. The decade lows are as follows


1964-1970 – 64.5 million bags (1970)


1971-1980 – 29.6 million bags (1977)


1981-1990 – 42.6 million bags (1987)


1991-2000 – 40.0 million bags (1998)


2001-2010 – 12.9 million bags (2010 forecast)




Brazil which produces 48% of the world coffee production is entering the off year 2011-12 for production in the biennial cycle for Arabica production in which an abundant crop in one year is followed by a lower crop in the next. To brief the biennial cycle for Brazil the production for the past four years is as follows


2007 – 36070 thousand bags


2008 – 45993 thousand bags


2009 – 39470 thousand bags


2010 – 48095 thousand bags


Data source www.ico.org