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Ira Sohn Conference: Jeffrey Gundlach on the Housing Crisis

May 25, 2011 | About:
Jeffrey Gundlach is the co-founder, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of DoubleLine. He was formerly associated with TCW where he was chief investment officer and head of fixed income activities. He is recognized worldwide as a leading expert in mortgage-backed securities and investment asset allocation. Morningstar nominated Gundlach for Fixed Income Manager of the Year for multiple years, and he won the award in 2006. In 2009, he was nominated by Morningstar for Fixed Income Manager of the Decade. He is a graduate of Dartmouth College summa cum laude holding a BA in Mathematics and Philosophy. He attended Yale University as a Ph.D. candidate in Mathematics.

The speech was quite humorous.

Debt as percentage of GDP went up 353% over past decade?

Federal receipts as percent of debt is 10% in 1940 and then stabilized, and now we are back to that percentage again. To put in another perspective, if interest rates were 10%, all tax receipts would just cover the interests on the debt. The way we solved it back then was with a huge tax increase.

We have tried almost everything. There is a possibility of nominal GDP growth of 6-7%, no more government spending, and zero percent interest rates. This is totally unrealistic of course.

Eighty-one percent of Americans support raising taxes on people who make over $1 million, while 76% oppose cutting social security.

Home ownership used to be way lower decades ago. Foreclosures are higher than they were in March 2009. The prime default rate has skyrocketed since March 2009.

Subprime default rates keep going up thanks to thebmortgage foreclosure moratorium.

Everything is getting worse. The ABX is down 20% in the past few months. Bank stocks like Bank of America are highly correlated to the ABX.

These are the reasons the banks stocks have been going down so much.

I like having cash; look what happened in the crash of '08. The U.S. is drowning, natural gas is $4; it is the only commodity that is cheap. Yes it has not gone up, but it has not gone down.

Gold best succeeds where the fiat money system collapses. However, if this happens you cannot buy a Slurpee at 7-11 with a sliver of gold. Same with silver. Gems at least can be carried around a bit.

I like Ginnie Mae bonds, both principal paying and interest rate only bonds. Yield is 27% and 14% respectively.

Disclosure: None

http://www.valuewalk.com/

About the author:

Jacob Wolinsky
My investment ideas have been inspired by many of value investors including Benjamin Graham, Charles Royce, John Neff, Joel Greenblatt, Peter Lynch, Seth Klarman,Martin Whitman and Bruce Greenwald. .I live with my wife and daughter in Monsey, NY. I can be contacted jacobwolinsky(AT)gmail.com and my blog is www.valuewalk.com

Visit Jacob Wolinsky's Website


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