The stock of Synopsys (NAS:SNPS, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $237.46 per share and the market cap of $36.2 billion, Synopsys stock shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Synopsys is shown in the chart below.
Because Synopsys is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 10.4% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 9.86% annually over the next three to five years.
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It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Synopsys has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.56, which is in the middle range of the companies in Software industry. The overall financial strength of Synopsys is 7 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Synopsys is fair. This is the debt and cash of Synopsys over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Synopsys has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $3.8 billion and earnings of $4.62 a share. Its operating margin is 18.54%, which ranks better than 86% of the companies in Software industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Synopsys at 9 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Synopsys over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus' research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company's stock. If a company's business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Synopsys's 3-year average revenue growth rate is in the middle range of the companies in Software industry. Synopsys's 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 13.5%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Software industry.
One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Synopsys's ROIC is 10.16 while its WACC came in at 7.54. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Synopsys is shown below:
In short, the stock of Synopsys (NAS:SNPS, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Software industry. To learn more about Synopsys stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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