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As Investors Panic: Calculating Intrinsic Value with a High Margin of Safety: AFL, CAB, MYL

August 10, 2011 | About:
smeadcap

smeadcap

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Dear Fellow Investors:

When markets get super difficult, as they have been the last couple of weeks, it is great to be able to lean on valuation methods with a high margin of safety. Ben Graham had a simple and beautiful formula for computing intrinsic value. Below is the formula:

Ben-Graham-Formula.jpg

While others are out there trying to predict the economy and short-run stock price changes, we at Smead Capital Management thought you might enjoy leaning on the greatest teacher that security analysis has ever known.

The numerator Graham came up with after studying the affect that interest rates have on stock market intrinsic values is 4.4. His numerator of 4.4 was designed to allow the change in the ten-year AAA bond interest rate to adjust the intrinsic value. Graham studied interest rates from 1900-1930 to get the right balance to his equation. The intrinsic value of a company is a long-term benchmark or guidepost. Companies rarely sell for their intrinsic value. Most trade below it, while some trade for significantly more than what this calculation might tell you.

There are two simple ways to get a high margin of safety when using Graham’s intrinsic value calculation. First, you can use a much lower ten-year growth expectation than other stock market participants. Second, you could use a much higher interest rate than the current ten-year AAA corporate bond. We would like to look at a few of our current holdings through the prism of intrinsic value.

Mylan Labs (MYL) has trailing operating earnings of around $1.84 per share. To have a high margin of safety we will use a ten-year growth rate in earnings of 10%, even though the First Call analyst consensus has an estimate of 14%. To have an even higher margin of safety, we will use a triple-A bond rate of 5.5% in all of our calculations (far higher than today’s rate).

Intrinsic Value of MYL = 1.84(20 + 8.5).8

Mylan Labs Intrinsic Value = $41.95 Current Price: $17.55

Despite a very bright future for the generic drug business, where major blockbuster drugs are losing patents to companies like Mylan, we used a very conservative ten-year growth rate in earnings. On top of that we used an interest rate more than 3% higher than today’s 2.17% AAA bond rate and you still have a stock trading for 42% of our intrinsic value calculation!

Aflac (AFL) earned around $6 in the last year. We will use a 5% earnings growth rate versus a First Call consensus growth rate of 12% and the same ten-year AAA corporate bond rate.

Aflac Intrinsic Value = 6(10 + 8.5).8

Aflac Intrinsic Value = $88.8 Current Price $36.20

In our opinion, Aflac is a 41-cent dollar based on “very high” margin of safety estimates.

Cabela’s (CAB) has trailing earnings of $1.80 per share. First Call estimates a five-year earnings growth rate of 15%, so we will use a ten-year growth rate of 10% and the same 5.5% AAA bond rate.

Cabela’s Intrinsic Value = 1.80(20 + 8.5).8

Cabela’s Intrinsic Value = $41 Current Price $22.57

This means that Cabela’s is trading at a 45% discount to its very conservatively estimated intrinsic value.

In conclusion, there are two main scenarios which could negatively impact earnings growth going forward. The economy could struggle the next five years, making earnings growth rates disappoint, and/or interest rates could rise significantly. In our opinion, either way, these stocks offer the possibility for above-average returns with a high margin of safety based on Ben Graham’s formula.



The information contained in this missive represents SCM’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Some of the securities identified and described in this missive are a sample of issuers being currently recommended for suitable clients as of the date of this missive and do not represent all of the securities purchased or recommended for our clients. It should not be assumed that investing in these securities was or will be profitable. A list of all recommendations made by Smead Capital Management with in the past twelve month period is available upon request.

About the author:

smeadcap
Smead Capital Management (SCM) is a large cap money manager in Seattle that manages separate accounts and a mutual fund with a value-oriented investment discipline. CIO Bill Smead founded the company in July 2007 after 15 years of managing money for larger predecessor firms. Bill started managing money in 1993 in Smith Barney's Portfolio Management Program. SCM manages focused portfolios with typically 25-30 securities. The top ten usually holds 40-50% of the portfolio. The firm currently manages about $175 million with $50million of that in our proprietary mutual fund. Our firm believes owning great companies is what builds wealth in the long-run, so we look to buy quality at a discount and be long term owners of those companies. We expect portfolio turnover to typically be 15-25%. You can also learn more about our company at www.smeadcap.com or www.smeadfunds.com.

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Comments

deltagumbo
Deltagumbo - 3 years ago
Using the intrinsic value formula in the article "As Investors Panic: Calculating Intrinsic Value with a High Margin of Safety" how did you arrive at the number .8?

Intrinsic Value of MYL = 1.84(20 + 8.5).8

Thanks.

Greg T

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