The stock of Axalta Coating Systems (NYSE:AXTA, 30-year Financials) appears to be modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $30.87 per share and the market cap of $7.2 billion, Axalta Coating Systems stock is believed to be modestly overvalued. GF Value for Axalta Coating Systems is shown in the chart below.
Because Axalta Coating Systems is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which is estimated to grow 1.51% annually over the next three to five years.
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Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company’s financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company’s financial strength. Axalta Coating Systems has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.33, which ranks worse than 71% of the companies in Chemicals industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Axalta Coating Systems’s financial strength as 4 out of 10, suggesting poor balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Axalta Coating Systems over the past years:
It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Axalta Coating Systems has been profitable 9 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $3.8 billion and earnings of $0.36 a share. Its operating margin is 7.67%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Chemicals industry. Overall, the profitability of Axalta Coating Systems is ranked 6 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Axalta Coating Systems over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus’ research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company’s stock. If a company’s business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Axalta Coating Systems’s 3-year average revenue growth rate is worse than 71% of the companies in Chemicals industry. Axalta Coating Systems’s 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -3.3%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Chemicals industry.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Axalta Coating Systems’s return on invested capital is 4.63, and its cost of capital is 8.13. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Axalta Coating Systems is shown below:
In summary, Axalta Coating Systems (NYSE:AXTA, 30-year Financials) stock appears to be modestly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Chemicals industry. To learn more about Axalta Coating Systems stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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