Every year Temp Employment peaks in November and then begins a swift slide through the end of the year. Except for this year. The past two weeks the index has rebounded from its Turkey Week low to year high levels and so far has stayed there. The previous 5 years the index has fallen steeply after Turkey Day.
Given what we saw last week in the large decline in 1st time unemployment claims, when we couple that data with this, we very well may be looking at some significant employment gains coming in Q1 2012.
Here is the multi year comp another way:
Now, it is possible the data collapse happens this week. Even if it does, the stronger than normal year end data bodes well for the beginning of 2012. If it doesn’t collapse like it should, it bodes very very well….