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GMO 7-Year Return Forecast: US High Quality is the Place to Be

February 20, 2012 | About:

GMO publishes a monthly forecasts of 7-year asset class return. As of Jan 31, 2012, US market is expected to return 0.8% a year. US small cap is positioned for -1.5%. US high quality is expected to gain 5% a year. Emerging market is expected to gain 5.6%. Almost all bonds will return negative.

All the numbers are net returns after a 2.5% of long term inflation rate.

The results for US market is very close to what GuruFocus gets from the ratio of total market cap over GDP, or Shiller P/E ratio.

The prediction for emerging market is lower that what GuruFocus expected from the Global Market Valuation page. This page also predicts better returns from Singapore and Australia.

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About the author:

gurufocus
Charlie Tian, Ph.D. - Founder of GuruFocus. You can now pre-order his book Invest Like a Guru on Amazon.

Rating: 2.7/5 (13 votes)

Comments

JoeDaWealthManager
JoeDaWealthManager premium member - 5 years ago
Great to see what smart folks think...only one problem: no way to predict anything with headwinds prevailing in the likes of ECB and PIIGS issue, Iran's Persion empire ambitions, China inflation baked into exports, and US debt crisis coming soon...$15.5 trillion and a bunch of DC spin doctors do-gooders!

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