GMO publishes a monthly forecasts of 7-year asset class return. As of Jan 31, 2012, US market is expected to return 0.8% a year. US small cap is positioned for -1.5%. US high quality is expected to gain 5% a year. Emerging market is expected to gain 5.6%. Almost all bonds will return negative.
All the numbers are net returns after a 2.5% of long term inflation rate.
The results for US market is very close to what GuruFocus gets from the
ratio of total market cap over GDP, or
Shiller P/E ratio.
The prediction for emerging market is lower that what GuruFocus expected from the
Global Market Valuation page. This page also predicts better returns from
Singapore and
Australia.
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- Feb 21, 2012 at 5:45 AM
