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Wien joined The Blackstone Group in September 2009 as a senior adviser to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends. Prior to joining Blackstone, Wien was chief investment strategist for Pequot Capital and before that served for 21 years as chief (later Senior) U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.(i) It’s obvious that Wien is a pretty smart and well-connected guy.
In addition to his position and vast network of contacts around the world, he also has access to teams of analysts who feed him insight to trends way before the average person hears about them in the media.
With that kind of buildup, I’m sure you’re expecting a very high accuracy rate on Wien’s predictions. Before you glance down and see them, keep in mind that Wien himself only sees a 50% chance that any of them will come true.
The predictions cover a range of events — political, economic, and financial markets. Each prediction is scored as follows: 1.0-prediction was correct, 0.5-prediction was partially correct, and 0.0-prediction was wrong.
The Ten Surprises for 2011
Predictions Made January 4, 2011
| Predictions | Yes | No |
| 1. S&P 500 rises to 1500 | 0 | |
| 2. Yield on 10-year Treasury tops 5% | 0 | |
| 3. Gold tops $1,600 a troy ounce | 1.0 | |
| 4. China’s GDP slows on currency intervention | 0.5 | |
| 5. Obama removes troops from Afghanistan | 0.5 | |
| 6. Housing improves, oversupply declines | 0.5 | |
| 7. Oil tops $115 a barrel/demand from emerging markets | 1.0 | |
| 8. Agriculture prices increase | 0.5 | |
| 9. Merkel works to reform Europe | 1.0 | |
10. Unemployment fallsAbout the author:Charles Mizrahi is editor and publisher of Hidden Values Alert newsletter, which focuses on finding stocks trading significantly lower than their underlying business value. He has over 23 years experience in the financial world as a money manager and investor. Email: charlesmizrahi@gmail.com, Webpage: www.HiddenValuesAlert.comTickers in the article:Track Gurus’ Stock Purchases Daily – Real Time Guru PicksGuruFocus "Real Time Picks" reports the stock purchases and sales that Gurus have made within the prior 2 weeks. The report time lag can be as short as 3 days after the date of the transaction. This is just one of the features provided with GuruFocus Premium Membership.CommentsPlease leave your comment:More Gurufocus LinksMORE GURUFOCUS LINKS» more GURU INTERVIEWS» more GURU NEWS» more VALUE IDEAS» more MORE BY CHARLES MIZRAHI
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I wonder why so many economists (that includes some Nobel laureates as well) are trying to accomplish something (for example, forecasting in this case) even if they know it is simply impossible to do so.
I thought the following two brainy quotes by Edgar R. Fiedler on forecasting might be useful:
1. If you have to forecast, forecast often.
2. The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.
3. If a camel is a horse designed by a committee, then a consensus forecast is a camel's behind.
4. The moment you forecast, you know you're going to be wrong, you just don't know when and in which direction.