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Holcim is a very good buy below $48

March 16, 2012 | About:
Chandan Dubey

Chandan Dubey

97 followers
Holcim is one of my holdings and since the time I bought it, it is up 20%. In this article I will look at some of the opportunities Holcim has especially its two majority holdings in India: Ambuja Cement and ACC Cement. Holcim owns 50.3% shares of both companies.

Ambuja Cement



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This company has fabulous balance sheet with almost no debt. The RoIC and the margins are quite enviable too.

If we look at the figures below (crore = 10 million, 50 Rs=$1), the company has good growth and the sales are touching $1.7 billion mark now. The compounded annual growth rate in sales was a bit more than 10% and the company did not even bat an eye-lid during the 2008-2009 crisis. The growth is in line with the consumption growth in cement for India, which is around 12% mark.90QDgmxo5fq-r_P0M9tDgKeAHxg9mQ23xlQU168e

ACC Cement



Almost the same story is true for ACC cement too. Both companies have similar sales ($1.9 billion) and almost no debt. The sales growth for ACC was 7% compounded and the return on capital employed or RoIC is also quite attractive.

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In short, both these companies are a very good investment for Holcim.

Global exposure



Holcim has an enviable position with operations in around 70 countries with production facilities at around 2,200 locations. This global presence “evens out” fluctuations in the individual markets and stabilizes earnings and revenue.

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The mature markets in Europe and North America sees less and less portion of Holcim’s total sales. In 2007, Holcim had total sales of SFr. 27 billion as compared to SFr. 21 billion in 2011. In absolute terms though the sales in both mature and emerging markets have fallen down quite a bit since 2007. This is not something to worry about as other companies and in fact the whole industry has seen similar level of decay in sales.

Holcim has annual cement capacity of 216 million tonne while it sold only 144 million tonne in 2011. The expansion of cement capacity has been done mainly in the growth market (75% of the production capacity in 2011 is in the growth markets). In India, ACC and Ambuja commisioned cement capacity totalling 3.9 million tonnes. A 1.6 million tonne capacity plant is going to come online in 2013 in the booming Indonesia and a new plant is also being commissioned in Mexico.

Bottom line



Holcim is increasing capacity for the time when the demand will pick up. There is nothing else to do, either for the company or the investors. The uptick will come when it comes. Meanwhile, we pick the best company in terms of the financial stability and value and wait for the eventual turnaround of the world economy. I will strongly recommend buying Holcim when the P/S ratio falls below 0.7. This is SFr. 44 and in USD, $48. It will give you a financially strong company with good growth prospects in the emerging markets, and a fabulous management with a 50% margin of safety.

About the author:

Chandan Dubey
I invest because I want to be free by the time I reach 40 years of age i.e., 2025. My investment style is to find a small number of bets with large margins of safety. I pay a lot of attention to management and their incentive. Ideally, I like to buy owner operator businesses. I am fortunate to have a strong inclination towards studying. I aid my financial understanding by extensive reading in psychology, economic, social sciences etc.

Rating: 3.5/5 (14 votes)

Comments

Cornelius Chan
Cornelius Chan - 2 years ago
Excellent global diversification with increasing exposure to emerging markets. Sound financials. Just celebrated 100 year anniversary. #1 in cement worldwide. It is like the dream stock!

"Holcim is increasing capacity for the time when the demand will pick up. There is nothing else to do, either for the company or the investors."

This is where the science of investing meets the art.

cdubey
Cdubey premium member - 2 years ago
You are right. I hope things gets worse before they get better and it reaches the price I want to pick shares at :)

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