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Keep Your Portfolio Rolling Along with Canadian National Railway

May 16, 2012 | About:
Canadian National Railway Co. (CNI) is a company whose stock price historically has correlated very closely to earnings. Wherever earnings have gone, Canadian National Railway Co.'s stock price has followed. Currently CNI’s stock price is precisely tracking its earnings-justified valuation. Therefore, we believe the company is trading at a sound valuation, offering the prudent dividend growth investor the opportunity for capital appreciation and dividend growth at a reasonable level of risk.

Dividend Contender: Canadian National Railway Co.

This article looks at Canadian National Railway Co., a Dividend Contender, through the lens of the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ Fundamentals Analyzer Software Tool. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, the reader will be provided the “essential fundamentals at a glance” expressed vividly in pictures. In order to provide you the opportunity to research this company deeper and faster we are providing a link to a live, fully functioning earnings and price correlated set of graphs found here. (Tip: Run your mouse over the various lines and watch the graphs come to life.)

A Dividend Contender is defined as a company that has increased its dividend for a minimum of 10 to 24 straight years. Canadian National Railway Co. is a Dividend Contender that has raised its dividend every year for 16 consecutive years. The complete Dividend Contenders list is compiled courtesy of David Fish. (Open as an excel spreadsheet and look at the tabs on the bottom to find the Dividend Contender list.)

About Canadian National Railway Co: from their website:

“Canadian National Railway Company and its operating railway subsidiaries – spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico, serving the ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, B.C., Montreal, Halifax, New Orleans, and Mobile, Ala., and the key metropolitan areas of Toronto, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Duluth, Minn./Superior, Wis., Green Bay, Wis., Minneapolis/St. Paul, Memphis, St. Louis, and Jackson, Miss., with connections to all points in North America.”

Canadian National Railway Co: A Dividend Contender with 16 Consecutive Years of Dividend Increases

Learning from the Past – Looking at Earnings Only

Since dividends are paid out of earnings, a clear perspective of a company’s historical earnings growth record is a vital component of a dividend investor’s prudent due diligence process. The following graph plots Canadian National Railway Co.’s earnings per share since 1998. A quick glance to the right of the graph shows that Canadian National Railway Co. has increased earnings at a compounded rate of 17.5%(see purple circle on graph)per annum.

CNI1.png

Earnings Determine Market Price and Dividend Income: The following earnings and price correlated F.A.S.T. Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings to both price movement and dividend income. The earnings growth rate line or True Worth ™ line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line. On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem. If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.

Since dividends are paid out of earnings, and therefore represent additional return on top of what the market capitalizes earnings at, they are depicted by the light blue shaded area and stacked on top of the earnings line. Therefore, a quick visual of these two important components is revealed simultaneously:

1. The additional return that dividend paying stocks provide.

2. The percentage of earnings paid to shareholders as dividends (payout ratio).

The value in this article is through carefully analyzing the earnings and price correlated fundamentally based graphs. Notice that one glance tells you how well the company has performed on an operating basis historically and how the market valued that historical performance. Therefore, the reader is free to discover whether or not current valuations make sense based on historical norms coupled with fundamental values. Instead of opinion, this article is designed to produce facts that can be analyzed to the reader's investing benefit.

CNI2.png

Performance Table: Capital Appreciation and Dividend Income Canadian National Railway Co.

The associated performance results with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the above discussion regarding the two components of total return: capital appreciation and dividend income. Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid, but not reinvested.

When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident. In addition to the 17.6% capital appreciation (Closing Annualized ROR), long-term shareholders of Canadian National Railway Co. would have received an additional $91,374.80 in dividends that increased their total return from 17.6% to 18.3% per annum.

(Note: Since this is a Dividend Contender it has raised its dividend every year for at least 10-24 years, therefore, negative dividend growth rates shown, if any, will be attributed to special additional dividends paid in excess of the company’s regularly reported dividend rate.)

CNI3.png

The following graph plots the historically normal PE ratio (the dark blue line) correlated with 10-year Treasury note interest. Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as normal as it has been since 1998.

CNI4.png

A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company's current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio. The current price to sales ratio for Canadian National Railway Co is 3.91, which is historically high.

CNI5.png

Looking to the Future

Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns, and the dividend and its growth rate are a function of two critical determinants:

1. The rate of change (growth rate) of the company's earnings

2. The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings

Therefore, forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.

Therefore, it logically follows that measuring performance without simultaneously measuring valuation is a job half done. At its current price, which is attractively aligned with its True Worth™ valuation, Canadian National Railway Co. represents a potential opportunity to invest in a Dividend Contender at a reasonable price. The important factor is that Canadian National Railway Co. has real assets and cash flow underpinning its stock price. This solid economic foundation offers shareholders the potential for both a strong margin of safety and an opportunity for an increasing dividend income stream and potentially attractive future returns.

The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.

The consensus of 17 leading analysts reporting to Zacks forecast Canadian National Railway Co. long-term earnings growth at 11.5%. Canadian National Railway Co. has medium long-term debt at 38% of capital. Canadian National Railway Co. is currently trading at a P/E of 14.5, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 18. If the earnings materialize as forecast, Canadian National Railway Co.’s True Worth valuation would be $154.49 at the end of 2017, which would be a 13.7% annual rate of return from the current price, including assumed dividends.

CNI6.png

Earnings Yield Estimates

Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price and dividend income in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.

Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Canadian National Railway Co. to an equal investment in 10-year Treasury bonds illustrates that Canadian National Railway Co.’s expected earnings would be 7.3 times that of the 10-Year T-Bond Interest (see EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.

CNI7.png

This report presents essential "fundamentals at a glance" on Dividend Contenders Canadian National Railway Co., illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it's imperative that the reader conduct his or her own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not. Follow the link we provided at the beginning of this article to a fully functioning F.A.S.T. Graphs™ on Canadian National Railway Co.

Summary & Conclusions

We believe at its current quotation CNI offers dividend growth investors an above-average total return at below-average levels of risk. Although the company only offers a market average dividend rate, we would expect its dividend to grow commensurate with its above-average expected earnings growth. We consider this a high quality dividend growth stock that is ideally suited for the long-term buy and hold conservative investor. As always, we recommend you conduct your own thorough due diligence.

Disclosure: No position at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment adviser as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation. A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.

About the author:

FAST Graphs
F.A.S.T. Graphs™ is a powerful research tool providing "essential fundamentals at a glance" on over 17,000 symbols. F.A.S.T. Graphs™ empowers the user to research stocks deeper and faster by allowing them to exploit the undeniable relationship and functional correlation between long-term earnings growth and market price. Warren Buffett, the greatest capital allocator of all time, said; "there are only two things that investor needs to know; how to value a company and how to think about stock prices." With the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ at their disposal, users are able to perform both of these critical tasks... FAST.

F.A.S.T. is an acronym for Fundamentals Analyzer Software Tool that takes all the hours of manual graphing of business fundamentals and reduces it to seconds, giving you critical information in an instant. With one glance you know a lot about the business you are graphing and its past, present and future value. F.A.S.T. Graphs™ should be the first step in every research project. Each graph is worth 1,000 words in describing a company's growth, consistency and valuation.

Visit FAST Graphs's Website


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