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Valuing Donald Yacktman's Portfolio - The Peter Lynch Fair Value

Holly LaFon

Holly LaFon

255 followers
Peter Lynch was an investor at Fidelity Investments from 1966 to 1990. From 1977 to 1990 he managed the massively successful Magellan Fund, which averaged a 29.2% return under his leadership. Lynch became known for choosing simple, obscure stock ideas that he usually found outside of the office. Like many famous investors, he developed his own method for valuing the intrinsic value of a stock, dubbed the Peter Lynch Fair Value.

GuruFocus, on its new valuations page, automatically calculates the fair value of every stock as defined by this legendary investor. The formula is as follows:

Peter Lynch Fair Value = PEG * 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate * Earnings

(If the 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate is greater than 20% a year, we use 20.)

Peter Lynch Fair Value applies to growing companies. The ideal range for the growth rate is between 10% and 20% a year.

Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E value for a growth company equals its growth rate, that is PEG = 1. The earnings here are trailing 12-month (TTM) earnings. The growth rate GuruFocus uses is the average growth rate for earnings per share over the past five years.

Many of the stocks in well-known investor Donald Yacktman’s portfolio can be valued using the Peter Lynch Value formula:

PricePeter Lynch Value
Apollo Group Inc. (APOL)36.3597.72
PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)70.7558.55
C.R. Bard Inc. (BCR)107.8143.5
The Coca-Cola Co. (KO)78.9342.45
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)20.15529.91
Viacom Inc. (VIA.B)47.78528.08
Walmart (WMT)69.3458.63
Leucadia National Corp. (LUK)21.5328.96
Intel Corp. (INTC)26.6925.03
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)56.2362.96
eBay Inc. (EBAY)41.2427.89
Research In Motion (RIMM)7.4955.75
Walgreen Co. (WAG)29.8728
Stryker Corp. (SYK)54.6633.12
The TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)43.2120.64


The table above shows that of the top 15 of Donald Yacktman’s stocks with a Peter Lynch Value, only 5 are trading above their Peter Lynch Value, and the rest would be considered overpriced.

Two stocks, however, have a long way to go to reach their fair value: Apollo Group (APOL) and Research In Motion (RIMM). Three others are slightly undervalued: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Leucadia (LUK) and UnitedHealth Group (GS).

In addition to fair value, Lynch looked for other indications that a stock would perform well. “I think you have to learn that there's a company behind every stock,” he said, “and that there's only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.”

GuruFocus’ Valuation Tab automatically calculates many of the most important stock valuation formulas for the stocks in any guru’s portfolio: Graham Number, tangible book, intrinsic value, media P/S, rate of return and earnings yield.

The new Valuation Tab is just one of the features we added to the Premium features we continue to add to Premium Membership. If you are not a Premium Member, why not take a 7-day Free Trial?


Rating: 3.6/5 (14 votes)

Comments

Lhughes
Lhughes - 2 years ago
Could you please clarify the derivation of the PEG. Are you calculating the PEG by using the current p/e multiple divided by the 5 yr earnings growth rate?
gurufocus
Gurufocus premium member - 2 years ago
yes.
heldman
Heldman premium member - 2 years ago
so it looks like i should short yacktman's portfolio? sorry, but this is a ridiculous way to invest
Lhughes
Lhughes - 2 years ago
Gurufocus

Formula = PEG x 5 YR Earnings Growth Rate x Earnings

So a lower PEG produces a lower fair value? That doesnt make sense. A lower PEG means the stock is undervalued i.e. a p/e of 15x growing at 15% will have a PEG of 1, but a p/e of 15x growing at 1% will have a PEG of 15. Obviously the latter will create the highest fair value. Please explain?
gurufocus
Gurufocus premium member - 2 years ago
Lhughes,

In the estimate of Peter Lynch fair value, PEG is always equal to 1. It is not the current PEG. Of course, a low current PEG of less than 1 means more undervalued.
davidchulak
Davidchulak premium member - 2 years ago
Correction: UNH should be (UNH), not GS for Goldman Sachs
richday101
Richday101 premium member - 1 year ago
If PEG is always equal to 1 to calculate Peter Lynch Value, shouldn't the formula be quoted as:

Peter Lynch Value = 5 YR Earnings Growth Rate x Earnings

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