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Absolute Value: LNKD vs DLB

August 09, 2012 | About:
Henry W. Schacht, CFA

Henry W. Schacht, CFA

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On Friday, August 3rd, the shares of Dolby Labs (DLB) and LinkedIn Corp (LNKD) each moved roughly 15%. Unfortunately for Dolby, the respective price movements were in opposite directions. And DLB shares were the ones taking a hit. That's what a “disappointing” earnings report and negative revisions gets you!

At that same time, LNKD shares were basking in the continued glow of rapid revenue growth causing CEO Jeff Weiner to say that his company is “not like other social networks.” One possible translation is that LNKD is more professional than social. Another translation? LNKD shares go up. Take that, Facebook (FB).

Indeed, if Mr. Market is correct, LinkedIn will enjoy a very bright and future. It is a growth story after all... and I'm told that those tend to have happy endings. This is in stark contrast to Dolby, a company that has committed the cardinal sin of slow to no growth.

Despite these divergent perceptions, DLB and LNKD have a few similarities. Both are tech companies, based in California (oddly enough), with dual share structures that grant insiders super-voting powers. They don’t sell physical products, but rather sell access to intellectual property. And currently, quarterly revenue for both companies is over $200 million a quarter. So coincidentally, DLB and LNKD should each post some $900 million of 2012 revenue.

These similarities came to mind as I read Friday's earnings reports and came to the exact opposite conclusion(s) as the crowd.

What struck me first? Despite similar current sales levels, LinkedIn is valued at $11 billion in the market, while Dolby’s valuation is just $3.5 billion. In a world of relative measures, I sometimes wonder if people look at these absolute measures. The disparity is enormous. Such is the power of perception and high growth expectations. And these are notions that LinkedIn works hard to cultivate in their earnings release. Who can blame the company for pointing out 89% growth in quarterly revenue compared to the same quarter a year ago? It is remarkable.

LinkedIn loves these relative measures for good reason. It tells a story of success. The first absolute number mentioned in the recent earnings release is 175 million - the number of LinkedIn members. It is another monster number and management is rightly proud of it. But all these numbers seem a bit small when measured against an $11 billion market value.

And how about a few other rather important numbers? LinkedIn earned $2.8 million for the quarter and $7.8 million for the last reported 6 months. Compared to the numbers above, these look woefully inadequate. It is hard to turn members into revenue. It is harder still to turn $1 of sales into a profit. Perhaps this is why the company doesn’t put the same emphasis on absolute profit numbers as it does on relative measures like revenue growth?

It takes a bit of calculation to see that shares outstanding are also up approximately 10% year over year. That’s a pretty big hole your friends on LinkedIn have cut in your pocket! You gotta love stock options. Not surprising, this is a growth rate that the company doesn’t highlight. Indeed, with dilution like that, it doesn’t take long for EPS growth to go negative despite robust revenue growth.

So the next time you hear about a growth company, it might help to find out WHAT is growing and if the growth is accruing to shareholders or taking away from them. Revenue growth is great, but it is not necessary or sufficient to create shareholder value. So this brings us to Dolby.

Dolby is a company that is far from perfect. Chief among these is the issue of governance. You really must read the proxy if only for its comedic value. The lengths controlling shareholders will go in order to nickel and dime their corporate offspring is staggering. Make no mistake, this is Ray Dolby’s company and he does what he wants with it. The company rents from him (from offices to condos). Employees park in his parking lots. There are the expected salaries, fees, and perks (office space and laboratory access). But my favorite: The family can use the corporate screening rooms up to 10 times a year for personal use.

If I ever become a billionaire, please remind me to build my own screening room to avoid embarrassing disclosures like this!

Either way, as proxies go, Dolby’s is very fun to read. But you can’t help being bit depressed when doing so, especially if you are an outside shareholder. It really is Pyrrhic victory for controlling shareholders, but they never seem to learn. Sooner or later, the market takes note. And Mr. Market has certainly marked down DLB shares. Governance has got to be an aggravating part of that equation. Dolby would control DLB with or without his dual shares and "related transactions", but in exercising this extra bit of control, he's cost himself and other shareholders dearly.

Nonetheless, for all its warts, the company is still wildly profitable… and undervalued. This is in stark contrast to its much cooler and faster growing Golden State neighbor. LinkedIn has similar warts but without a bargain basement price to compensate for the risks.

In a “disappointing” quarter (according to the headlines), Dolby (the company) made over $60 million in the most recent quarter. Free cash flow generation averages $80-$100 million a quarter. The cash flows quarter after quarter after quarter. It’s enough to make my cold, dead, capitalist heart jump for joy. The result: $1.3 billion in cash and investments on the corporate balance sheet.

By comparison LinkedIn has $600 million or so in cash. Not bad, but there is that issue of price again. Neither company has any debt to speak of. They don’t need it. Dolby is awash in free cash flow of $300+ million a year and, well, LinkedIn can just issue stock.

Dolby and LinkedIn provide a stark illustration that absolute numbers matter little in the current investing environment. Looking at the numbers in their totality, few people would assign a value of $11 billion to a company that barely makes a profit. Only when the name “LinkedIn” is added do people lose their collective minds. Similarly, remove the name “Dolby” from the top of DLB financial statements and the price of $3.5 billion seems absurdly low.

At the current growth rate(s), one has to wonder when LinkedIn will reach $1.3 billion in cash and $300+ million in annual free cash flow? Will it ever?

It seems that insiders at both companies are clearly aware of the difference between perception and reality.

Thanks to stock repurchases, Dolby’s shares outstanding are 5% lower than they were a year ago and 7% over the last 2 years. Nice to see that Dolby isn’t content to turn itself into a glorified savings account just yet. They have grudgingly put some of this cash to work. All that cash is a first-class problem that LNKD and plenty of others would love to have.

Ironically, LinkedIn insiders seem perfectly content to sell shares in sizable quantities. So perhaps LNKD is not so different from the other social networks after all.

Disclosure: Long DLB, Short LNKD.




Rating: 4.1/5 (10 votes)

Comments

Adib Motiwala
Adib Motiwala - 1 year ago
Finally Mr Henry is back! Nice enjoyable piece once again. Thanks.
LwC
LwC - 1 year ago
Hey Mr. Schacht, long time no see. Welcome back!

Dr. Paul Price
Dr. Paul Price premium member - 1 year ago
Published on August 3, 2012 on RealMoneyPro...

Sorry, the article's graphics and charts do not come through here on GuruFocus

Dolby Labs – Tune out the Static and Buy Dolby Laboratories [DLB] is an iconic name for those of us who grew up in the age of cassette tapes. Since eliminating that incessant hissing Dolby has moved into movie and home-theater sound systems, automotive, computer and video game applications and high-quality streaming sound for NetFlix, Hulu, cable and satellite broadcasts.

Dolby earned $0.50 per share in 2005 and is now expected to show $2.57 this year. That would be down a tad from 2011’s $2.75 but would still represent a very nice 414% 7-year gain. DLB peaked above $70 in 2010 and was $45.83 as recently as May 7th right after Microsoft [MSFT] indicated they plan to include Dolby technology in Windows 8.

I used Friday’s earnings disappointment ($0.48 v. a $0.51 estimate) and the subsequent dip to under $31 as a buying opportunity. At Friday’s close of $30.66 Dolby trades for below 12x the already tempered estimate for 2012.That compares with average P/E levels of 21.9x during the entire six years 2006 – 2011.



The current quote represents the second lowest valuation in Dolby’s publicly-traded history. The 2008 nadir of $24.50 came at 14.1 times EPS substantially lower than today’s. Brave souls who didn’t shy away from a “falling knife” and scooped up shares near the low watched it surge to $70 by 2010. Buyers who caught the blink-of-an-eye drop to last October’s low were rewarded with a chance at a 78% trading gain within seven months.

As of March 31 the company held over $1 billion in cash and had no debt. The brand equity and patent portfolio are both very valauble assets that do not show on their balance sheet. The growing trend towards mobile devices is likley to keep demand for high-quality noise reduction technology rising.

Risk/reward looks extremely attractive on this unique technology company. There are only 107.2 million (fully diluted) shares outstanding so any positive mood change is likely to send the shares right back up.

Morningstar calls present day fair value as $36 and carries a sell target of $48.60. Standard and Poors sees fair value as $45.80 with a close-matched 12-month goal of $46.

I purchased DLB shares in Friday’s session. A rebound to a still-below-normal 18 multiple would support a target price above $46.

The Trade: Buy Dolby shares for $30.66

Disclosure: Long DLB

hschacht
Hschacht - 1 year ago
wow, an article within an article ;-)

$1.3b in cash... and all that fcf... pretty good for a company that is dying... so say all the people emailing me.

Funny, that is what I was told when i bought Apple in 2002.

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