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Buckle Inc: Stock Research Analysis

September 18, 2012 | About:
This article is going to analyze Buckle Inc (BKE) through the lens of FAST Graphs. Buckle announced at its quarterly meeting of the board of directors, held on Sept. 17, 2012, the board authorized a $0.20 per share quarterly dividend to be paid to shareholders of record at the close of business on Oct. 15, 2012, with a payment date of Oct. 26, 2012.

Buckle has a legacy of paying special dividends. They paid $1.07 in January of ’07, $2.00 in October of ’08, $1.80 in ’09, $2.50 in December of 2010 and $2.25 in October of 2011. Value Line expects that Buckle will take advantage of the current 15% tax rate and therefore, they consider it probable that Buckle may pay an additional $2.00 special dividend in 2012. The current annual dividend of $.80 per share is offering a current yield of approximately 1.7%.

Consequently, we believe that Buckle Inc may appeal to yield-seeking investors because of the potential for another special dividend. However, there is no guarantee that this will occur. Based on the regular dividend, there is still the potential to see increasing income over time, but the 1.7% yield may not satisfy all investors seeking dividend income.

About Buckle Inc: Directly from their website

“Offering a unique mix of high-quality, on-trend apparel, accessories, and footwear, Buckle caters to fashion-conscious young men and women. Known as a denim destination, each store carries a wide selection of fits, styles, and finishes from leading denim brands, including the Company’s exclusive brand, BKE. Headquartered in Kearney, Nebraska, Buckle currently operates 439 retail stores in 43 states compared to 428 stores in 42 states as of August 30, 2011.”

Earnings Determine Market Price: The following earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings. The Earnings Growth Rate Line or True Worth™ Line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line. On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem. If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.

Earnings & Price Correlated Fundamentals-at-a-Glance

A quick glance at the historical earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ on Buckle Inc shows a picture of a company that is in value based upon the historical earnings growth rate of 13.9% and a current PE of 14.4. Analysts are forecasting the earnings growth to continue at about 10%, and when you look at the forecasting graph below, the stock appears in value, (it’s inside of the value corridor of the five orange lines - based on future growth).

Buckle Inc: Historical Earnings, Price, Dividends and Normal PE Since 1998

BKE1.png

Performance Table Buckle Inc

The associated performance results with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the principles regarding the two components of total return; capital appreciation and dividend income. Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid, but not reinvested.

When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident. In addition to the 11.1% capital appreciation (green circle), long-term shareholders of Buckle Inc, assuming an initial investment of $1,000, would have received an additional $1,433.31 in dividends (blue highlighting) that increased their total return from 11.1% to 13.1% per annum versus 3.8% (red circle) in the S&P 500. Note that in the performance table where you see big dividend cuts that those are the result of special dividends that were paid, not because the company actually cut their dividends.

BKE2.png

The following graph plots the historical PE ratio (the dark blue line) in conjunction with 10-year Treasury note interest. Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as normal as it has been since 1998.

BKE3.png

A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company’s current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio. The current price to sales ratio for Buckle Inc is 2.09 which is historically normal.

BKE4.png

Looking to the Future

Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns are a function of two critical determinants:

1. The rate of change (growth rate) of the company’s earnings

2. The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings

Forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.

The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.

The consensus of 10 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Buckle Inc’s long-term earnings growth at 10% (orange circle). Buckle Inc has no debt (red circle). Buckle Inc is currently trading at a P/E of 14.4, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 18 (orange arrows). If the earnings materialize as forecast, Buckle Inc’s True Worth™ valuation would be $76.10 at the end of 2017 (brown circle on EYE Chart), which would be a 10.7% annual rate of return from the current price (yellow highlighting).

BKE5.png

Earnings Yield Estimates

Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.

Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Buckle Inc to an equal investment in 10-year Treasury bonds, illustrates that Buckle Inc’s expected earnings would be 5.9 (purple circle) times that of the 10-year T-bond interest (see EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.

BKE6.png

Summary & Conclusions

This report presented essential “fundamentals at a glance” illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although, with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it’s imperative that the reader conducts their own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.

Disclosure: No position at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment adviser as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation. A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.

About the author:

Chuck Carnevale
Charles (Chuck) C. Carnevale is the creator of F.A.S.T. Graphs™. Chuck is also co-founder of an investment management firm. He has been working in the securities industry since 1970: he has been a partner with a private NYSE member firm, the President of a NASD firm, Vice President and Regional Marketing Director for a major AMEX listed company, and an Associate Vice President and Investment Consulting Services Coordinator for a major NYSE member firm.

Prior to forming his own investment firm, he was a partner in a 30-year-old established registered investment advisory in Tampa, Florida. Chuck holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Finance from the University of Tampa. Chuck is a sought-after public speaker who is very passionate about spreading the critical message of prudence in money management. Chuck is a Veteran of the Vietnam War and was awarded both the Bronze Star and the Vietnam Honor Medal.

Visit Chuck Carnevale's Website


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