Earnings Determine Market Price: The following earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings. The Earnings Growth Rate Line or True Worth™ Line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line. On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem. If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.
Earnings & Price Correlated Fundamentals-at-a-Glance
A quick glance at the historical earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ on Intel Corp paints a vivid picture of significant undervaluation based upon the historical earnings growth rate of 15.4% and a current PE of 9.9. Clearly, Intel’s earnings growth rate has accelerated since the great recession of 2008. However, we believe the expected weakness for 2012 is as we previously stated, mostly attributed to delayed purchases pending Windows 8.
Currently, analysts are forecasting the earnings growth to average about 10% a year starting in 2014 and beyond. However, concerns for 2013 are still low. Nevertheless, even if 2013 generates the muted growth rate expected, we would argue that Intel with a 4% dividend yield is worth at least 15 times earnings (the orange line on the graphic below).
Intel Corp: Historical Earnings, Price, Dividends and Normal PE Since 2009
For a more comprehensive look at a bullish case for the long-term opportunity in front on Intel, see Intel: There's Certainly A Bull Case by Ashraf Eassa.
Moreover, in order to conduct your own research and get a clearer perspective on Intel’s valuation, click on the picture below that links to a fully functioning sample F.A.S.T. Graphs™ on Intel and research this high-quality dividend growth stock deeper and faster.
Performance Table Intel Corp
The associated performance results with the earnings and price correlated graph validates the principles regarding the two components of total return: capital appreciation and dividend income. Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid but not reinvested.
When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend-paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident. In addition to the 12.4% capital appreciation (green circle), long-term shareholders of Intel, assuming an initial investment of $1,000, would have received an additional $178.54 in dividends that increased their total return from 12.4% to 15.7% per annum versus 13.9% in the S&P 500.
The following graph plots the historical PE ratio (the dark blue line) in conjunction with 10-year Treasury note interest. Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as low as it has been since 2009.
A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company’s current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio. The current price to sales ratio for Intel Corp is 2.09 which is historically low.
Looking to the Future
Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns are a function of two critical determinants:
1. The rate of change (growth rate) of the company’s earnings
2. The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings
Forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.
The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.
The consensus of 23 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Intel’s long-term earnings growth at 10% (orange circle). Intel has low long-term debt at 13% of capital. Intel is currently trading at a P/E of 9.9, which is below the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 18. If the earnings materialize as forecast, Intel’s True Worth™ valuation would be $50.73 at the end of 2018 (brown circle on EYE Chart), which would be a 19.4% annual rate of return from the current price (yellow highlighting).
Earnings Yield Estimates
Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.
Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Intel to an equal investment in 10-year Treasury bonds, illustrates that Intel’s expected earnings would be 9.2 (purple circle) times that of the 10-year T-bond interest (see EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.
Summary & Conclusions
This report presented essential “fundamentals at a glance” illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although, with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it’s imperative that the reader conducts their own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.
Disclosure: Long INTC at the time of writing.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment adviser as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation. A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.
About the author:
F.A.S.T. is an acronym for Fundamentals Analyzer Software Tool that takes all the hours of manual graphing of business fundamentals and reduces it to seconds, giving you critical information in an instant. With one glance you know a lot about the business you are graphing and its past, present and future value. F.A.S.T. Graphs™ should be the first step in every research project. Each graph is worth 1,000 words in describing a company's growth, consistency and valuation.