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Berman: Shale Gas Will Be the Next Bubble to Pop

November 17, 2012

Shale Gas Will Be the Next Bubble to Pop: An Interview With Arthur Berman

"A lot of investors from other parts of the world, particularly the oil-rich parts have been making somewhat high-risk investments in the United States for many years and, for a long time, those investments were in real estate.

Now these people have shifted their focus and are putting cash into shale. There are two important things going on here, one is that the capital isn't going to last forever, especially since shale gas is a commercial failure. Shale gas has lost hundreds of billions of dollars and investors will not keep on pumping money into something that doesn't generate a return."

[www.minyanville.com]

Arthur Berman has made quite a name for himself as a shale gas gadfly (or gasfly?), and he has been beating this drum for some time now. I don't have any special insight into the legitimacy of Berman's observations, but I have seen reports from producers that appear to show that the only shale gas play that can come close to making any money at current gas market prices is, or was, the Marcellus. On the other hand IMO if one is able to acquire natural gas assets at a price that reflects current market conditions, there are likely to be above average profits in the future.

What Worked in the Stock Market for Long-Term Investors?

Extensive research has found that the companies with predictable revenues and earnings outperform the market average; they also suffer lower probability of loss. As a matter of fact, this kind of companies are exactly what Warren Buffett wants to buy and hold forever. Please read the research about what worked in the stock market:

Part I: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Predictability Rank
Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety


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