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Some of El-Erian’s observations:
- The labor market is still gradually healing and that is very good news, but we are still a long way from being out of the unemployment crisis.
- He thinks that individual household confidence has greatly improved, but confidence at the business level is still low.
- He believes that Washington will agree on a mini-compromise before year-end but that the majority of the issues will have to be dealt with in the new year (he qualifies this by saying that there is still risk to this forecast).
- With respect to Europe he sees the German economy as being sluggish and the rest of Europe as being in recession.
- PIMCO’s message is to invest in countries like Brazil and Mexico where balance streets are strong and interest rates coming down.
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