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Always generous with their time, Guy Spier and Mohnish Pabrai discuss their approach to investing and take a Q&A at the Japan Investing Summit.
Mohnish Pabrai and Guy Spier - Japan Investing Summit
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CanadianValue - 5 months ago
If my man Monish has that kind of money in CHK then he has long forgotten his "Heads I win, tails I don't lose much" concept that I so admire.
No place for an overleveraged commodity producer at that kind of position weighting.
[valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.ca]
No place for an overleveraged commodity producer at that kind of position weighting.
[valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.ca]
Stevenramsey - 5 months ago
A couple of possibilities: I would think of the BAC warrants that he has talked about before. At his meeting in Chicago he mentioned that he owned these personally but he did not own them in his partnership due to restrictions he had set at the beginning. The only reason I might hesitate on this possibility is that Brian Moynihan, while I think he is doing a great job, may not be that superb manager that he is referring to here.
Also, Sears makes some sense. Berkowitz lays out a case that Sears could be worth anywhere from $150-$1000 (the $1,000 figure from an OID interview in 2009). Eddie Lampert is a great manager/capital allocator. Yet two years ago at Pabrai's meeting, he said that he made a mistake on Sears a few years ago because while the value was there, management didn't have an intention to unlock it (via selling the real estate and liquidating the assets). Plus, Pabrai has mentioned multiple times his disdain for retail in general.
CHK makes some sense as the guys at Longleaf believe it's worth $51 or more right now and Icahn was saying it was significantly undervalued when the stock was selling at $21.
But when he is saying 10-40x, the best possibility I see thus far is still the BAC warrants of all of that I just rambled about, due to the leverage attributes and the cheap valuation.
Also, Sears makes some sense. Berkowitz lays out a case that Sears could be worth anywhere from $150-$1000 (the $1,000 figure from an OID interview in 2009). Eddie Lampert is a great manager/capital allocator. Yet two years ago at Pabrai's meeting, he said that he made a mistake on Sears a few years ago because while the value was there, management didn't have an intention to unlock it (via selling the real estate and liquidating the assets). Plus, Pabrai has mentioned multiple times his disdain for retail in general.
CHK makes some sense as the guys at Longleaf believe it's worth $51 or more right now and Icahn was saying it was significantly undervalued when the stock was selling at $21.
But when he is saying 10-40x, the best possibility I see thus far is still the BAC warrants of all of that I just rambled about, due to the leverage attributes and the cheap valuation.
Ramands123 - 5 months ago
Yes i think BAC warrents would make lot of sense. His timming was just perfect on BAC stock (around 5$). That means he probally got warrents at around 1.50$. Its around 4.5 $ so its already a 3X.Warrents traded as high as 11 $ two years back. So it could easily be 10X in a year or two.
All of them seem to be a good bets SHLD,BAC and CHK. Like great investors say if you are not sure just take the basket approach ..:)
Yes i think BAC warrents would make lot of sense. His timming was just perfect on BAC stock (around 5$). That means he probally got warrents at around 1.50$. Its around 4.5 $ so its already a 3X.Warrents traded as high as 11 $ two years back. So it could easily be 10X in a year or two.
All of them seem to be a good bets SHLD,BAC and CHK. Like great investors say if you are not sure just take the basket approach ..:)
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Sears has an outstanding manager with a very low valuation. In Cheaspake, Mohnish has a big position.If he believes something is worth 10-40X then he should be having a portion of it in his fund.