Like many investors, I follow with baited breath the insights of Warren Buffett. For a couple of years Buffett has been telling us that when the housing market really turns both unemployment and the economy are going to get a lot better in a hurry.
Robert Shiller has been a credible observer of the housing market and had some observations today cautioning that we aren't on the cusp of a housing boom:
- We might see home prices go up a little bit, but there is no boom in the cards.
- Shiller isn't even certain that we have bottomed yet.
- This was the worst economic crisis since the great depression and that has changed the way people think; more people are going to rent on a long-term basis.
- The surveys Shiller does do not show that the general population is optimistic on the long-term housing market.