GuruFocus Premium Membership

Serving Intelligent Investors since 2004. Only 96 cents a day.

Free Trial

Free 7-day Trial
All Articles and Columns »

Market Cycle Analysis & Five-Year Rolling Analysis of Guru Performance

March 06, 2013 | About:
Vera Yuan

Vera Yuan

85 followers
Market Cycle Analysis In our research of John Hussman’s performance, we observed that he underperformed the market if we look at the latest 3-year annualized return, 5-year annualized return and even 10-year annualized return. Yet this might not be the case if we look at his performance over a complete economic cycle.

We believe that the performance over fixed time periods, like the latest 3-year, 5-year and 10-year, might be misleading since a single bad year performance would ruin all. Therefore, we believe the best way to measure funds’ performance is to check the performance number over complete market cycles.

According to the annual returns of S&P 500 from 1999 to 2012, we think market peaks appeared at 1999, 2007 and 2012, while market troughs appear at 2002 and 2008. Based on this, we research all the funds’ performance from peak to peak (1999 to 2007, 2007 to 2012, and 1999 to 2012) years and trough to trough years (2002 to 2008).

The results are as follows (we ignore the funds which lack at least two years of data in a complete economic cycle):

Table 1: Peak to Peak_1999-2007 Annual Return
Guru Name Return Fund Type
David Tepper 30.66% h
Ken Heebner 28.90% m
Daniel Loeb 21.30% h
Arnold Schneider 19.78% m
Mawer New Canada Fund 19.25% f
Robert Bruce 18.74% m
John Buckingham 17.68% m
John Paulson 17.31% h
Bruce Berkowitz 17.11% m
Fairholme Fund 17.11% f
Jean-Marie Eveillard 16.49% m
Meridian Funds 15.80% m
Signature Select Canadian Fund 15.59% f
Murray Stahl 15.29% m
Arnold Van Den Berg 14.54% f
Mark Hillman 14.43% m
Chuck Royce 13.92% m
Chuck Akre 13.28% m
John Keeley 13.22% m
Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity 13.03% f
Westport Asset Management 12.91% m
CI Can-Am Small Cap Fund 12.62% f
Mawer Canadian Equity Fund 12.51% f
Richard Snow 12.50% m
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc 12.39% h
Robert Rodriguez 12.15% f
Dodge & Cox 12.12% m
Edward Owens 11.33% f
Martin Whitman 11.23% f
Third Avenue Management 11.23% m
Ron Baron 10.96% m
Steven Romick 10.90% f
Ian Cumming 10.77% i
Robert Olstein 10.60% m
Chou RRSP Fund 10.43% f
John Hussman 10.41% m
Bill Frels 10.14% m
Mario Gabelli 9.86% m
Ronald Muhlenkamp 9.62% m
Tom Gayner 9.59% i
Mason Hawkins 9.47% m
Tom Russo 9.44% h
John Rogers 9.41% m
Donald Yacktman 9.00% m
PRIMECAP Management 8.80% m
Francis Chou 8.69% m
Warren Buffett 8.39% i
Jeff Auxier 8.32% m
Prem Watsa 8.09% i
HOTCHKIS & WILEY 8.05% m
Brian Rogers 7.56% f
Ken Fisher 7.51% m
Wallace Weitz 7.50% m
David Rolfe 7.45% m
NWQ Managers 6.81% m
Chris Davis 6.73% m
Charles Brandes 6.50% m
Jeremy Grantham 6.29% m
James Barrow 6.05% m
Ruane Cunniff 5.88% m
RS Investment Management 5.65% m
Bill Nygren 5.33% f
Tweedy Browne 4.61% m
S&P 500 3.78%


Table 2: Peak to Peak_2007-2012 Annual Return
Guru Name Return Fund Type
Prem Watsa 19.73% i
David Rolfe 9.21% m
Daniel Loeb 8.84% h
Donald Yacktman 8.61% m
Warren Buffett 8.43% i
Frank Sands 8.28% m
Mawer New Canada Fund 7.98% f
Zeke Ashton 7.90% h
Chuck Royce 7.05% m
Ian Cumming 6.99% i
Jean-Marie Eveillard 6.85% m
Westport Asset Management 6.49% m
Ruane Cunniff 6.12% m
Edward Owens 5.80% f
David Einhorn 5.76% h
Steven Romick 5.61% f
Robert Rodriguez 5.43% f
Mawer Canadian Equity Fund 4.81% f
Bill Frels 4.80% m
Robert Bruce 4.58% m
Mario Gabelli 4.51% m
Bill Nygren 4.46% f
PRIMECAP Management 4.40% m
David Winters 4.25% m
CI Can-Am Small Cap Fund 4.23% f
John Paulson 4.11% h
Bruce Berkowitz 3.99% m
Fairholme Fund 3.99% f
Jeff Auxier 3.90% m
Tom Russo 3.77% h
James Barrow 3.33% m
Tweedy Browne 3.33% m
Meridian Funds 3.17% m
RS Investment Management 3.05% m
Diamond Hill Capital 2.91% m
Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity 2.75% f
Wallace Weitz 2.51% m
S&P 500 2.21%
John Keeley 2.03% m
Chuck Akre 2.02% m
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc 1.89% h
Brian Rogers 1.87% f
John Rogers 1.86% m
Ron Baron 1.58% m
Jeremy Grantham 1.30% m
NWQ Managers 1.23% m
Signature Select Canadian Fund 1.05% f
John Buckingham 0.84% m
Tom Gayner 0.71% i
Chou RRSP Fund 0.69% f
Francis Chou 0.58% m
Arnold Van Den Berg 0.29% f
Ken Heebner 0.23% m
Mason Hawkins 0.14% m
Dodge & Cox -0.17% m
Ken Fisher -0.31% m
Richard Snow -0.54% m
Mark Hillman -0.72% m
Martin Whitman -0.73% f
Third Avenue Management -0.77% m
Robert Olstein -0.80% m
Arnold Schneider -1.22% m
Murray Stahl -1.45% m
Chris Davis -1.76% m
HOTCHKIS & WILEY -2.29% m
John Hussman -2.64% m
Ronald Muhlenkamp -3.54% m
Charles Brandes -5.92% m


Table 3: Peak to Peak_1999-2012 Annual Return
Guru Name Return Fund Type
Daniel Loeb 16.06% h
Mawer New Canada Fund 14.46% f
Robert Bruce 14.27% m
Arnold Schneider 13.22% m
Ken Heebner 13.00% m
Jean-Marie Eveillard 12.73% m
Bruce Berkowitz 11.21% m
John Buckingham 11.11% m
Chuck Royce 11.01% m
Meridian Funds 10.78% m
Fairholme Fund 10.37% f
Robert Rodriguez 10.15% f
Westport Asset Management 10.05% m
Signature Select Canadian Fund 10.02% f
John Paulson 9.85% h
Arnold Van Den Berg 9.69% f
CI Can-Am Small Cap Fund 9.68% f
Prem Watsa 9.46% i
Edward Owens 9.43% f
Chuck Akre 9.32% m
Donald Yacktman 9.24% m
Mawer Canadian Equity Fund 9.21% f
Mark Hillman 8.91% m
Steven Romick 8.89% f
Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity 8.78% f
John Keeley 8.70% m
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc 8.38% h
Warren Buffett 8.22% i
Bill Frels 8.20% m
Richard Snow 7.75% m
David Rolfe 7.67% m
Chou RRSP Fund 7.65% f
Dodge & Cox 7.54% m
Ian Cumming 7.41% i
Mario Gabelli 7.40% m
Tom Russo 7.35% h
Murray Stahl 6.95% m
John Rogers 6.92% m
Tom Gayner 6.87% i
Ron Baron 6.81% m
PRIMECAP Management 6.71% m
Robert Olstein 6.59% m
Francis Chou 6.58% m
Wallace Weitz 6.55% m
Jeff Auxier 6.45% m
Martin Whitman 6.32% f
Third Avenue Management 6.30% m
Mason Hawkins 6.09% m
Ruane Cunniff 5.81% m
Bill Nygren 5.62% f
Brian Rogers 5.39% f
James Barrow 5.33% m
RS Investment Management 5.23% m
Ronald Muhlenkamp 5.22% m
HOTCHKIS & WILEY 4.90% m
Jeremy Grantham 4.76% m
John Hussman 4.65% m
NWQ Managers 4.38% m
Tweedy Browne 4.35% m
Chris Davis 3.89% m
Ken Fisher 3.75% m
S&P 500 2.97%
Charles Brandes 2.65% m


Table 4: Trough to Trough_2002-2008 Annual Return
Guru Name Return Fund Type
David Tepper 17.16% h
John Paulson 15.90% h
Robert Bruce 14.02% m
Prem Watsa 13.00% i
Jean-Marie Eveillard 11.61% m
Ken Heebner 10.92% m
Mawer New Canada Fund 10.20% f
CI Can-Am Small Cap Fund 10.15% f
Daniel Loeb 9.37% h
Warren Buffett 9.26% i
Chuck Royce 7.12% m
Bruce Berkowitz 6.93% m
Fairholme Fund 6.93% f
Chuck Akre 6.79% m
Ian Cumming 6.51% i
Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity 6.40% f
Diamond Hill Capital 6.29% m
Steven Romick 6.21% f
John Hussman 6.02% m
Mawer Canadian Equity Fund 5.69% f
Signature Select Canadian Fund 5.45% f
John Keeley 5.37% m
Donald Yacktman 5.20% m
Sarah Ketterer 4.98% m
Tom Russo 4.51% h
Edward Owens 4.26% f
Arnold Schneider 4.04% m
Ron Baron 3.81% m
Westport Asset Management 3.34% m
Francis Chou 3.33% m
Jeff Auxier 2.88% m
Murray Stahl 2.69% m
Meridian Funds 2.68% m
Robert Rodriguez 2.60% f
Bill Frels 2.41% m
Mario Gabelli 2.21% m
Martin Whitman 2.04% f
Third Avenue Management 2.04% m
Mark Hillman 1.95% m
Tom Gayner 1.83% i
PRIMECAP Management 1.75% m
Chou RRSP Fund 1.45% f
Ruane Cunniff 1.40% m
John Buckingham 1.30% m
Arnold Van Den Berg 1.12% f
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc 0.63% h
Dodge & Cox 0.54% m
Brian Rogers 0.53% f
Tweedy Browne -0.04% m
Richard Snow -0.50% m
NWQ Managers -0.59% m
James Barrow -0.65% m
Jeremy Grantham -0.83% m
HOTCHKIS & WILEY -1.08% m
Ken Fisher -1.28% m
David Rolfe -1.35% m
Bill Nygren -1.37% f
S&P 500 -1.38%
Ronald Muhlenkamp -1.61% m
RS Investment Management -1.92% m
John Rogers -2.48% m
Chris Davis -2.78% m
Mason Hawkins -2.79% m
Wallace Weitz -2.95% m
Robert Olstein -3.50% m
Frank Sands -4.49% m
Charles Brandes -7.56% m


Data source:

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/

http://finance.yahoo.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/

For the fund type, h means hedge fund, m means mutual fund, f means fund and i means investment company. The yellow marked line is the S&P 500, and the green marked line and the above are the top 20 gurus for each complete economic cycle. From the above four tables, we can see Daniel Loeb, Mawer New Canada Fund (Canadian Guru), Robert Bruce, Jean-Marie Eveillard, Chuck Royce, Ken Heebner, John Paulson, Bruce Berkowitz, Chuck Akre and Prem Watsa did a pretty good job for at least three complete economic cycles. Almost all the funds outperformed the market during 1999 to 2007, 1999 to 2012 and 2007 to 2012, yet due to the financial crisis, only 55% of the gurus outperformed the market. From 2007 to 2012, Prem Watsa, David Rolfe, Daniel Loeb, Donald Yacktman, as well as Warren Buffett did the best in beating the market. We need to mention that Canadian gurus, including Mawer New Canada Fund, Mawer Canadian Equity Fund, Signature Select Canadian Fund, CI Can-Am Small Cap Fund and Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity, performed well during these time periods.

Five-Year Rolling Analysis

In order for us to better assess the performance of those funds, now we use five-year rolling basis to analyze our funds. This methodology is commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends. In Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)(BRK.B)’s annual report of 2012, Warren Buffett mentioned this methodology. We first calculate the five-year rolling annualized returns for each fund from their inception date to today, then compare them with five-year rolling annualized returns of the S&P 500, and finally we calculate the percentage of years when each fund outperformed the market. We ignore those funds which had less than eight five-year rolling returns from 1980 or their inception date, whichever comes first, to 2012.

The results are as follows:

Table 5: Percentage of Years When Guru Outperformed the Market (Five-Year Rolling Basis)
Guru Name Percentage Number of Data
Warren Buffett 100.00% 29
Daniel Loeb 100.00% 14
Westport Asset Management 100.00% 11
Diamond Hill Capital 100.00% 8
CI Can-Am Small Cap Fund 100.00% 11
Edward Owens 95.83% 24
Meridian Funds 92.86% 14
David Tepper 92.86% 14
Tom Gayner 91.67% 12
Bruce Berkowitz 88.89% 9
Jeff Auxier 88.89% 9
Fairholme Fund 88.89% 9
Prem Watsa 86.36% 22
Ruane Cunniff 86.21% 29
Chuck Akre 84.21% 19
NWQ Managers 83.33% 12
Tom Russo 83.33% 24
PRIMECAP Management 83.33% 24
Ken Heebner 81.82% 11
Manning & Napier Advisors Inc. 80.00% 10
Signature Select Canadian Fund 80.00% 10
Ian Cumming 78.57% 28
John Paulson 78.57% 14
Robert Rodriguez 76.00% 25
Ken Fisher 75.00% 12
Frank Sands 75.00% 8
David Rolfe 75.00% 16
Mawer New Canada Fund 75.00% 20
Steven Romick 73.33% 15
Mario Gabelli 72.73% 22
Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity 71.43% 14
Ron Baron 70.59% 17
Chuck Royce 70.59% 17
Murray Stahl 69.23% 13
James Barrow 66.67% 12
Jean-Marie Eveillard 65.52% 29
Bill Frels 65.52% 29
Bill Nygren 64.71% 17
Richard Snow 64.71% 17
Chris Davis 64.71% 17
Mawer Canadian Equity Fund 64.71% 17
Tweedy Browne 64.29% 14
Wallace Weitz 64.00% 25
Donald Yacktman 62.50% 16
RS Investment Management 61.54% 13
Brian Rogers 60.87% 23
Ronald Muhlenkamp 60.00% 20
John Keeley 60.00% 15
Arnold Schneider 60.00% 10
Mark Hillman 60.00% 10
Francis Chou 59.09% 22
Dodge & Cox 58.62% 29
Mason Hawkins 57.14% 21
John Hussman 55.56% 9
Robert Olstein 53.85% 13
John Buckingham 50.00% 10
Robert Bruce 48.00% 25
John Rogers 45.45% 22
Martin Whitman 44.44% 18
Third Avenue Management 44.44% 18
Jeremy Grantham 44.44% 9
Arnold Van Den Berg 41.38% 29
Charles Brandes 37.50% 16
Chou RRSP Fund 36.36% 22
HOTCHKIS & WILEY 33.33% 21


Data source:

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/

http://finance.yahoo.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/

From above table 5, we can observe Warren Buffett, Daniel Loeb, Westport Asset Management, Diamond Hill Capital and CI Can-Am Small Cap Fund (Canadian Guru) outperformed the market for all the years since 1980 or their inception date using a five-year rolling basis. Besides, almost all the top 20 Gurus of table 5 show up on the top 20 Gurus of the peak-to-peak and trough-to-trough tables we mentioned above.

Conclusion

In general, the Gurus we track did well in complete market cycles. They do not outperform the market all the time. They may even underperform the market over three-year and five-year periods. But over complete market cycles, most of them outperformed the market.

In the five-year rolling periods, 21 out of 65 Gurus can outperform S&P 500 over 80% of the time. Fifty of them can outperform S&P 500 over 60% of the time. And 56 of them can outperform the S&P 500 over 50% of the time. These facts again prove that the Gurus we track did well since 1980 or their inception date, whichever comes first.

The above two methods of analyzing funds’ performance are good if you are a long-term investor. They might not be a suitable way if you want to invest in a shorter time period.


Rating: 4.1/5 (25 votes)

Comments

vgm
Vgm - 1 year ago
Thanks for doing the analysis. I think the outcome and conclusions are quite interesting, though it's disappointing that some of the very best Gurus are missing (in particular Steve Mandel and Glenn Greenberg, to mention two of my own personal favorites).

A question and a suggestion:

1. In the case of Tweedy Browne, Third Avenue, Weitz and others which have multiple funds, which fund(s) did you use for the assessment and why?

2. Given that wealth creation is the endpoint of investing, I wonder if it would be worthwhile to look at the growth of say a $10k investment as a function of time from inception for the funds you used. A graphical display would be most revealing.

Thanks again.
Vera
Vera premium member - 1 year ago
Dear Vgm,

Due to lack of data, we did not do this analysis of your personal favorite two Gurus. Sorry about that.

Here are the answers for your question:

1. We used Tweedy Browne Value Fund, Third Avenue Value Fund, and Partners Value Fund. We track them because their performance was great since their inception.

2. This is a great idea. I will do research on this and it will be my next topic.

Regards,

Vera
vgm
Vgm - 1 year ago
Many thanks Vera!

vgm
Cornelius Chan
Cornelius Chan - 1 year ago
Thank you for a great piece of investing "homework". This is just a fantastic table of results from some very tedious calculations. The end result? Putting into perspective the returns of gurus over various select time/market periods.

I have just gone over it once. It will take me a couple more times to understand it.

Thanks again!

Please leave your comment:


Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK