The great Peter Lynch once said the following about spending time on macro forecasting:
"If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes."
Pimco's El-Erian seemingly spends all of his time on such issues.
I tend to think that Lynch is the man we should listen to, although going blindly into the 2008 market collapse would not have been optimal.
Today El-Erian considers likely Fed action in light of recent strong economic numbers.