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John Paulson's Top Five Holdings

November 20, 2013 | About:
Monica Wolfe

Monica Wolfe

133 followers
John Paulson is the President and Portfolio Manager of Paulson & Co. The guru became a guru by short-selling subprime mortgages in 2007, but is most known for his stance on gold.

During the third quarter the guru bought 8 new stocks bringing his portfolio to 87 stocks valued at over $15.516 billion, up from $14.4 billion last quarter. .

SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)

Paulson’s largest position is in the SPDR Gold Trust where he maintains 31,500,000 shares. The guru’s holdings make up for 8.5% of his total portfolio as well as for 2.29% of SPDR Gold Trust’s shares outstanding.

The guru did not alter his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust over the past quarter. During the second quarter of 2013 the guru sold over 11.5 million shares of the trust.

Paulson’s holding history:

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The SPDR Gold Trust is a part of the SPDR family of exchange-traded funds managed and marketed by State Street Global Advisors. SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund in the world.

SPDR Gold Shares’ historical pricing:

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The GuruFocus warning for the SPDR Gold Trust is that the company’s interest coverage is extremely low. The trust’s earnings cannot cover its interest expense, meaning that if the situation continues, the company might have to issue more debt.

According to the ETF’s website, the trust is down about -21.15% year to date and the median gold spot price is down approximately -20.44% year to date.

The top guru shareholders of SPDR Gold Trust:

1. John Paulson: 10,234,852 shares, representing 2.29% of the trust’s shares outstanding.

2. Jean-Marie Eveillard: 2,787,089 shares, representing 0.62% of the trust’s shares outstanding.

SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) has a market cap of $55.49 billion. Its shares are currently trading at around $121.95.

Family Dollar Stores (FDO)

Paulson’s second largest holding is in Family Dollar Stores where he holds on to 11,265,600 shares of the company’s stock. His position makes up for 5.2% of his total portfolio and 9.80% of the company’s shares outstanding.

During the third quarter Paulson increased his position 51.35% by purchasing an additional 3,822,000 shares of Family Dollar Stores stock. He bought these shares in the quarterly price range of $62.83 to $74.70, with an estimated average quarterly price of $70.26 per share. Since then the price per share has increased a slight 0.1%.

Paulson’s historical holding history:

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Family Dollar Store operates a chain of general merchandise retail discount stores which hold a variety of competitively priced merchandise in local stores. The company sells its merchandise at a price that generally ranges from less than one dollar to ten dollars.

Family Dollar Store’s historical revenue and net income:

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The analysis on Family Dollar reports that the company has issued $316.9 million of debt over the past three years and its price is nearing a 10-year high. The analysis also notes that the company has shown predictable revenue and earnings growth, its operating margin is expanding and its dividend yield is sitting at a 3-year high.

The top guru shareholders of Family Dollar:

1. John Paulson: 11,265,600 shares, representing 9.8% of the company’s shares outstanding.

2. Eric Mindich: 1,671,900 shares, representing 1.45% of the company’s shares outstanding.

3. Larry Robbins: 1,161,269 shares, representing 1.01% of the company’s shares outstanding.

The Peter Lynch Chart suggests that the company is currently overvalued:

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Family Dollar Stores has a market cap of $8.08 billion. Its shares are currently trading at around $70.30 with a P/E ratio of 18.40, a P/S ratio of 0.80 and a P/B ratio of 5.10. The dividend of Family Dollar Stores stocks is currently at 1.40%. The company had an annual average earnings growth of 13.70% over the past ten years.

GuruFocus rated Family Dollar Stores the business predictability rank of 4-star.

Vodafone Group PLC (VOD)

The guru’s third largest holding was in Vodafone Group where the guru holds on to 20,000,000 shares of the company’s stock. His holdings make up for 4.5% of his total portfolio and 0.41% of the company’s shares outstanding.

Paulson made a large jump in holdings over the past quarter. Paulson upped his stake 612.02% by purchasing 17,191,100 shares of the company’s stock. He bought these shares in the third quarter price range of $28.66 to $35.18, with an estimated average quarterly price of $31.01 per share. Since then the price per share has increased 18.1%.

Paulson’s historical holding history:

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Vodafone Group PLC is a provider of mobile communications. It has a single group of related services and products being the supply of communications services and products. Segment information is provided on the basis of geographic areas, which are: Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Europe, India and Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific.

Vodafone’s historical revenue and net income:

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The analysis on Vodafone reports that the company’s issued GBP4.9 billion of debt over the past year, it’s price is also trading near a 10-year high as are its P/E, P/S and P/B ratios. The analysis also recognized that Vodafone’s dividend yield is also at a 5-year low.

The Peter Lynch Chart suggests that the company is currently overvalued:

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Vodafone has a market cap of $177.18 billion. Its shares are currently trading at around $36.57 with a P/E ratio of 256.50, a P/S ratio of 2.50 and a P/B ratio of 1.60. The company currently holds a dividend yield of 4.30%. Vodafone had an annual average earnings growth of 2.40% over the past five years.

Grifols SA (GRFS)

Paulson’s fourth largest holding is in Grifols SA where he maintains 19,838,107 shares of the company’s stock. His holdings make up for 3.9% of his total portfolio as well as for 5.77% of the company’s shares outstanding.

The guru made a slight increase in his position over the third quarter. He upped his holdings 0.26% by purchasing 51,828 shares. He bought these shares in the quarterly price range of $29.08 to $32.97, with an estimated average quarterly price of $31.09 per share. Since then the price per share has increased approximately 3.6%.

Paulson’s historical holding history:

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Grifols SA is a vertically integrated producer of plasma derivatives. Its activities include sourcing raw material, manufacturing various plasma derivative products and selling and distributing final products to healthcare providers.

Grifols’ historical revenue and net income:

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The analysis on Grifols reports that the company’s price is nearing a 10-year high, its Piotroski F-Score is at 7, indicating a healthy situation and its P/E and P/S ratios are trading at 3-year highs.

Top guru shareholders of Grifols:

1. John Paulson: 19,838,107 shares, representing 5.77% of the company’s shares outstanding.

2. Steve Mandel: 4,453,500 shares, representing 1.3% of the company’s shares outstanding.

3. Jim Simons: 1,342,654 shares, representing 0.39% of the company’s shares outstanding.

Grifols SA has a market cap of $10.92 billion. Its shares are currently trading at around $32.17 with a P/E ratio of 33.90, a P/S ratio of 3.00 and a P/B ratio of 5.60. The company had an average earnings growth of 28.20% over the past five years.

MGM Resorts International (MGM)

Paulson’s fifth largest holding is in MGM Resorts where he maintains 29,800,000 shares of the company’s stock. His position makes up for 3.9% of his total portfolio and 6.09% of the company’s shares outstanding.

During the third quarter Paulson cut his holdings -12.35% by selling 4,200,000 shares. He sold these shares in the quarterly price range of $14.87 to $20.44, with an estimated average quarterly price of $17.42 per share. Since then the price per share has gone up about 7.9%.

Paulson’s historical holding history:

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The company is engaged in the gaming and resort operations. It mainly owns and operates casino resorts, which includes offering gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail and other resort amenities.

MGM Resorts’ historical revenue and net income:

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The analysis on MGM Resorts reports that the company’s revenue has been in decline over the past five years and its gross margin has also been in a long-term decline.

Top guru shareholders of MGM Resorts International:

1. John Paulson: 29,800,000 shares, representing 6.09% of the company’s shares outstanding.

2. David Tepper: 6,576,869 shares, representing 1.34% of the company’s shares outstanding.

3. Steven Cohen: 1,850,960 shares, representing 0.38% of the company’s shares outstanding.

MGM Resorts International has a market cap of $9.04 billion. Its shares are currently trading at around $18.45 with a P/S ratio of 1.00 and a P/B ratio of 2.10.

You can check out John Paulson’s complete third quarter portfolio here.

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