Is There a Huge Gap Between Price and Intrinsic Value?

The Gap Inc. (GPS, Financial) is a leading apparel specialty retailer that sells casual apparel for men, women, and children under the Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Piperlime and Athleta brands. With a very broad spectrum of consumers, the company becomes the largest specialty apparel retailer in the U.S. Additionally, the company plans to open five Old Navy brand stores in China this year, so the focus in international markets is a driver for future revenues. The firm's competitors include American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO, Financial) and The TJX Companies Inc. (TJX, Financial).

Now, turning our attention to the future direction of the stock, let's take a look at the intrinsic value of this company and try to explain to investors the reasons why it is a good buy or not. In this article, we present a model that is by no means the be-all and end-all for valuation. The purpose is to force investors to evaluate different assumptions about growth and future prospects.

Valuation

In stock valuation models, dividend discount models (DDM) define cash flow as the dividends to be received by the shareholders. Extending the period indefinitely, the fundamental value of the stock is the present value of an infinite stream of dividends according to John Burr Williams.

Although this is theoretically correct, it requires forecasting dividends for many periods, so we can use some growth models like: Gordon (constant) growth model, the Two or Three stage growth model or the H-Model (which is a special case of a two-stage model).

To start with, the Gordon Growth Model (GGM) assumes that dividends increase at a constant rate indefinitely.

Let´s estimate the inputs for modeling:

Required Rate of Return (r)

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) estimates the required return on equity using the following formula: required return on stockj = risk-free rate + beta of j x equity risk premium

Assumptions:

Risk-Free Rate: Rate of return on LT Government Debt: RF = 2.67%

Beta: β =1.47

GGM equity risk premium = (1-year forecasted dividend yield on market index) +(consensus long-term earnings growth rate) – (long-term government bond yield) = 2.13% + 11.97% - 2.67% = 11.43%[1]

rGPS = RF + βGPS [GGM ERP]

= 2.67% + 1.47 [11.43%]

= 19.47%

Dividend growth rate (g)

The sustainable growth rate is the rate at which earnings and dividends can grow indefinitely assuming that the firm´s debt-to-equity ratio is unchanged and it doesn´t issue new equity.

g = b x ROE

b = retention rate

ROE can be estimated using Dupont formula:

Because for most companies, the GGM is unrealistic, let´s consider the H-Model which assumes a growth rate that starts high and then declines linearly over the high growth stage, until it reverts to the long-run rate. A smoother transition to the mature phase growth rate that is more realistic.

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model (long-run rate)

With the GGM formula and simple math:

The growth rates are:

G(2), g(3) and g(4) are calculated using linear interpolation between g(1) and g(5).

Calculation of Intrinsic Value

Final Comment

When the stock price is lower than the intrinsic value, the stock is said to be undervalued and it makes sense to buy the stock. We have covered just one valuation method and investors should not be relied on alone in order to determine a fair (over/under) value for a potential investment.

Hedge fund gurus have also been active in the company. Gurus like Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio), Louis Moore Bacon (Trades, Portfolio), Chase Coleman (Trades, Portfolio), Murray Stahl (Trades, Portfolio) and Edward Lampert (Trades, Portfolio) have invested in it in fourth quarter 2013.

Disclosure: Victor Selva holds no position in any stocks mentioned.

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[1] This values where obtained from Blommberg´s CRP function.