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What Will Drive Gold Price Higher?

April 10, 2008

Thomas Tan, CFA

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About the author:

Thomas Tan, CFA
GuruFocus - Stock Picks and Market Insight of Gurus

Rating: 3.0/5 (14 votes)

Comments

DaveinHackensack
DaveinHackensack - 6 years ago
For what it's worth, Thomas, Jim Cramer agrees with you that this is just a temporary pull back in the gold bull market. He sees gold going to $1600 per ounce.

gav_sharma
Gav_sharma - 6 years ago
Cramer is a foooolll
kfh227
Kfh227 premium member - 6 years ago
"What Will Drive Gold Price Higher?"

Late night infomercials.

kfh227
Kfh227 premium member - 6 years ago
gav_sharma Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Cramer is a foooolll


He is mad alright. And a pathetic investor. Hjis popularity is simply due to his speaking ability and enthusiasm. Those two talents a a dollar will often get you a donut. He's lucky to be successful and there is not much more to say about it. He is equivalent to a lottery winner, but he actually has to"work".
commodity
Commodity - 6 years ago
Jim Rogers is a commodities expert.

I take his advice.I get it for free.

His record is unreal.Study it.

People tell you that gold is going to 2000

and then want to sell you some.

If they really knew it was going to 2000

then WHY are they selling it to you?
ccyork
Ccyork - 6 years ago
I agree Jim Rogers is a great investor.

He has recently said that gold will continue to rise and he will buy more after it corrects, but not now.
DaveinHackensack
DaveinHackensack - 6 years ago
"He is mad alright. And a pathetic investor. Hjis popularity is simply due to his speaking ability and enthusiasm. Those two talents a a dollar will often get you a donut. He's lucky to be successful and there is not much more to say about it. He is equivalent to a lottery winner, but he actually has to"work"."

When you offer opinions on as many things as Cramer does, you're going to be wrong a lot of time. I certainly don't agree with everything Cramer says; as I mentioned on the small cap values board recently, I went against Cramer's recommendation on PCR (See "Bucking the Lighting Round: Jim Cramer versus PCR"). But Cramer is worth listening to, if for nothing else than as a barometer for the market.

Next time you're in Barnes & Noble, you ought to pick up a copy of his autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict" and read the first 70 pages or so, to learn about Cramer's background and how he made money at his hedge fund (it's not a way you or I would be able to replicate, but it's worth reading nonetheless). Cramer himself acknowledges that he's been lucky (particularly by being befriended by Marty Peretz when he was at Harvard), but it's clear that someone that hardworking, smart, and driven would have been highly successful regardless.

"He has recently said that gold will continue to rise and he will buy more after it corrects, but not now."

Has Jim Rogers said what price he'd buy more gold at and what his long-term price target for gold is? Does Rogers ever get specific like that?

John Krantz
John Krantz - 6 years ago
Cramer is no fool. Very smart guy.

He is just not in the business of making ordinary investors money. He is in the business of pumping stocks for himself and his hedge fund buddies.

http://www.footnoted.org/urge-to-merge/booyah-dissecting-jim-cramers-new-contract/

""Finally, there was a personal note about Cramer’s current marital status. In Cramer’s last contract, there was a clause that permitted Cramer’s wife, Karen Backfisch-Olufsen “to engage in extensive securities activities.” In the new contract, the word wife was removed and replaced with the words, “any Cramer family members (including any spouse)”

Ya really think its his wife picking those stocks in "extensive securities activities"? wink, wink.
DaveinHackensack
DaveinHackensack - 6 years ago
"Ya really think its his wife picking those stocks in "extensive securities activities"?"

His wife co-ran his hedge fund, and it was her idea to go to cash right before the 1987 crash, so I wouldn't be surprised if she has her own ideas about picking stocks. Again, read the first part of Cramer's autobiography. It's in there. If your suggestion is that he's going to tell her ahead of time what stocks he's going to mention on the show, and then she'll buy them right before the show and dump them after he mentions them -- I doubt it. He's got plenty of money as it is, and that would probably be illegal and not worth the risk.
John Krantz
John Krantz - 6 years ago
But this is the same Cramer who admitted manipulating markets and trading on insider info when he ran his hedge fund, and then tried to take it back when the SEC threatened him. Not the most ethical thing to do there. Going by his own autobiography isn't exactly unbiased info.

Call my cynical, but I operate by the rule that most anyone who makes a living promoting shares has ulterior motives, if they were so good at market mastery they would just make a living doing that. I'm sure his wife knows what she is doing too, maybe he helps her out? I would not be suprised at all. He always seems to have held the stocks he reccomends for a while before they have a big run up and he announces his great find to the public. His show just smacks of a scaled up version of one of those penny stock promotion websites to me. thestreet.com is a good resource though, mostly because of Doug Kass.

Cramer and his CNBC comrades publicly cheerleaded every bubble until it popped and then pretended they didn't cheerlead irrationally (cramer) or deny the bubble's existance (Kudlow).

Do you remember his 80 to 100 to 120 rule? That was the dumbest investing "advice" I ever heard in my life. And he swore buy it. Someone as smart as Cramer knows it was idiotic. But he isn't paid to offer sane advice. He is paid to be a Market Minstrel, the pied piper that uses his Svengali personality to pump Mr. Retail investor into chasing the dreams of stock market wealth over a cliff. " WATCH TV AND GET RICH!!!! " I can't believe this guy hasn't resorted to late night infomercials.

His show is fun to watch, and my young kids love watching it (hey beats cartoons), but he is the antithesis to "sane investing in an insane world" imo. If I ever saw one of my stocks as a Cramer pick I would put that down as a bullet point on my reasons to sell now list. I've tracked some of Cramers most interesting, sane sounding picks personally for a while now out of curiosity, and invariably they tumble, and tumble hard within a year, no matter how good they sound. These aren't lightning round picks either. I guess one way of investing using Cramer is to bottom feed the best ideas a year after he reccomends them and now says "sell sell sell sell sell sell!!!!!"
ccyork
Ccyork - 6 years ago
DaveinHackensack Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Has Jim Rogers said what price he'd buy more gold

> at and what his long-term price target for gold

> is? Does Rogers ever get specific like that?


Jim Rogers rarely gets specific about price targets or time horizons, but he will often say exactly what he is buying and selling today

in an exception to his normal lack of price target specificity, he recently said he will cover his financial shorts when he sees Fannie Mae at $8, and i don't think this was hyperbole

he has stated repeatedly that he usually buys and shorts ETFs because his lawyers advise him not to deal in individual stocks

the last time i saw him interviewed, he was buying his own agricultural commodity index (RJA), the yen, and the swiss franc that day

he has said he is short the investment bank ETF (which i suppose could be IAI)

he is always shorting the dollar, but has recently said he expects a rally in the dollar and the financials soon and would consider that an opportunity to put on more shorts

these are just a few examples. overall, he's far more transparent about his investments than warren buffett is, to be sure
DaveinHackensack
DaveinHackensack - 6 years ago
John Krantz,

"But this is the same Cramer who admitted manipulating markets and trading on insider info when he ran his hedge fund, and then tried to take it back when the SEC threatened him. Not the most ethical thing to do there. Going by his own autobiography isn't exactly unbiased info."

Cramer's candid about how he ran his hedge fund in the book. He explains his learning curve from relying on fundamentals to playing the analyst game (and how his wife helped teach him this game). Like I said, it's worth reading. Cramer doesn't sugarcoat this, and it's rare, candid look from the inside.

"Call my cynical, but I operate by the rule that most anyone who makes a living promoting shares has ulterior motives, if they were so good at market mastery they would just make a living doing that."

Cramer made gobs of money on Wall Street, before starting TheStreet.com and going on TV. He doesn't own any stocks personally, and I'd be highly surprised if his show were just a scam to pump stocks for family members.

I get the cynicism, and that's generally healthy, but there's a lot of unwarranted Cramer-bashing here. Sure, Cramer throws a lot of crap against the wall, and he makes plenty of mistakes, but he's usually honest about them, and you can learn a lot from his mistakes as well as from his successes. He also demonstrates the capacity to learn from them.

I agree that he was wrong to call the 80-to-120 "rule" a rule: he should have just called it what it was, a pattern he had recognized from previous bull markets. Unfortunately, the bull market ended soon after he talked about that idea. Cramer was quick to recognize the severity of the credit crisis and he's been on target so far with his comments on the ag and commodity booms, as well as some of his comments about international investing (I agree with his bullishness on Brazil, but I think he's too dismissive of the political risks of investing in Russia). Cramer has also recommended some good mutual funds on his show, like Heebner's CGM Focus Fund.

Kudlow has always been a permabull. The rest of the CNBC crew, with the exception of Erin Burnett, perhaps, are mostly airheads.

You and I both watch the show and are skeptical of Cramer's recommendations. We agree on that. I just think people are too hard on the guy sometimes.
John Krantz
John Krantz - 6 years ago
I'll admit, I haven't read "Confession's of a Street Addict", but I'll give it a shot.

It just seems he gets a lot of people jumping in the market who aren't ready, and who don't think for themselves. Like a cult personality who uses charisma and sensational advertising to sell books and attract viewers. I really think a lot of people got burned badly with 80-100-120 rules and things like that...Understand too that when he was saying all this, its not like the credit crunch or recession were unseen. Plenty of people called it. Personally I get behind the guys who get it right first. Incidently Doug Kass, contributor to thestreet.com, is such a person, and I hold his opinion in high regard.

Perhaps I am too hard on him. I don't know him personally and I only go by his public persona. He could be a really good, upstanding guy who happens to be a little overly bullish. But understand I'm digging at the Cramer "persona" or "business", because that is the only thing I see. He's a public figure so that's what I go by. I've learned to steer clear of people who sell themselves and their products the way he does.

Some of his book reccomendations are really good. 'Microtrends' by Mark Penn was an excellent read for an investor.

Jehnavi
Jehnavi - 3 years ago
Spot gold price is first determined in US dollars, which can be seen on the goldprice.org. It is then transformed into other currency value of around twenty nine major countries throughout the world.

A normal gold contract is traded in 100 troy ounce bars. A trader buys a gold contract and receives actual gold at the end of the contract, which usually benefits him. The procurement is in any form – gold bullions, jewelry, bars, coins, and so on. There are various Comex outlets all over the country, and one can easily procure gold from any of these locations through a national exchange company.

Jehnavi
Jehnavi - 3 years ago
As the name suggests, price of any commodity paid at the time of purchase is known as spot price. Similarly, the price of gold, any quantity, that you pay immediately on purchasing it is known as [url=http://www.financeandmarkets.net/spot-gold-price.html][/url]spot gold price. In some cases, price is paid a day or two in advance. In short, spot gold price is the current price of the gold in the market.
Jehnavi
Jehnavi - 3 years ago
Commodities and stocks have black eyes, on Thursday, falling with the decline attributed to fears about Europe's ability to hold the sovereign debt crisis and growing doubts about the strength of the global recovery. New York, gold futures comparative earlier losses as some investors bought on dips. Fell 0.4 percent. Silver has fallen more than 2.2 percent. Platinum and palladium were pursued further, plunging 6.8 percent and 11.0 percent respectively.

Thanks

Spot Gold Price

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