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Citigroup: Undervalued at 8.2x Its Pretax Earnings

June 04, 2014 | About:

1. Company

Citigroup (C) is a multinational financial services company which has been in operation for over 200 years. It is the third largest bank holding company in the U.S. by assets and its largest shareholders include funds from the Middle East and Singapore. The firm has one of the largest financial services networks in the world in a 140 country with 16,000 offices through the world. Citi holds over 200 million customer accounts and is a primary broker for the U.S. Treasury Department. The firm suffered heavy losses during the financial crisis which led the government to bail it out to the tune of $25 billion and guarantee $300 billion in the firm's assets. Despite these losses and bailouts which gave the government a 37% equity interest, it still built up enormous cash reserves of $420 billion in surplus liquid cash and government securities as of 2012.

Market Cap:

1.2 History

1998 Merger

Citigroup was came about at of the merger between Citicorp and Travelers Group. The structure of the merger was that of a stock swap, with Travelers Group purchasing the entirety of Citicorp shares for $70 billion, and issuing 2.5 million new Citigroup shares for each Citicorp share. When the merger was completed the new company was the largest financial institution at $140 billion with $700 billion in assets.

2000 Acquisitions:

  • Associates First Capital Corporation (Agreed to pay victims of predatory lending practices $240 million)
  • European American Bank - $1.9 billion
  • Banamex - $12.5 billion

2008 Financial Crisis and Beyond

The firms heavy exposure to troubled mortgages in the form of collateralized debt obligation (CDOs), compound by the firms very poor risk management or lack of risk management. This exposure and lack of risk management left the firm insolvent, despite its receipt of $25 billion in the Trouble Asset Relief Program Fund. As a result of its become insolvent the Citi and Federal regulators approved a plan to stablilize the company. On November 24, 2008 the government announced a massive plan to save the company which called for the government to back $306 billion in loans and securities and directly invest $20 billion in the firm. Multiple government agencies would cover up to 90% of losses on its $335 billion portfolio after Citi absorbed the first $25 billion in losses. In return the Citi gave the government $27 billion in preferred shares and warrents to acquire stock. In January of 2009, the firm announced that it plan to reorganize itself into two operating units: Citicorp for its retail operations and institutional client business and Citi Holding for its brokerage and asset management. Citigroup will continue to operates as one company. Citi achieved its first profitable year since 2007 in 2010 and it reported $10.7 billion in net profits, compared to its loss of $1.9 billion in 2009. In late 2010, the government sold its remaining shares for a $12 billion profit.

On March 2012, Federal Reserve reported Citi was one of the four financial institutions out of 19 major banks to fail the stress test. According to the company and the Fed it failed the stress test because of its high return capital plan and its international loans. Again in 2014 the firm failed the stress test. According to the Fed it fail Citi on qualitative concerns that was left unresolved despite regulatory warning.

2. Corporate Managment

The company is linking pay to performance for all top executives at the firm. Which is a great move the better the company performance the more management will make. For 2013 CEO Mike Corbat received $14 million in compenation. Mr. Corbat has proven since he took the ranks in 2012, to be very well equip for the job. He has a long history in banking and before he took over as CEO he ran the firms European Operations.

3. Finances

Balance Sheet

2013

31/12

2012

31/12

2011

31/12

2010

31/12

Total Current Assets

-

-

-

-

Total Assets

1880382

1864660

1873878

1913902

Cash & Due from Banks

29885

36453

28701

27972

Other Earning Assets, Total

1020950

996700

1016780

1044590

Net Loans

645824

630009

617127

608139

Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Net

-

-

-

-

Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Gross

-

-

-

-

Accumulated Depreciation, Total

-

-

-

-

Goodwill, Net

25009

25673

25413

26152

Intangibles, Net

7774

7639

9169

12058

Long Term Investments

-

-

-

-

Other Long Term Assets, Total

-

36

-

-

Other Assets, Total

150940

168150

176688

194991

Total Current Liabilities

-

-

-

-

Total Liabilities

1676043

1675611

1696072

1750434

Accounts Payable

53707

57013

56696

51749

Payable/Accrued

-

-

-

-

Accrued Expenses

-

-

-

-

Total Deposits

968273

930560

865936

844968

Other Bearing Liabilities, Total

25000

20300

16000

28200

Total Short Term Borrowings

251456

259263

247814

258348

Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital Leases

-

-

-

-

Other Current liabilities, Total

-

-

-

-

Total Long Term Debt

207116

223163

312505

362983

Long Term Debt

207116

223163

312505

362983

Capital Lease Obligations

-

-

-

-

Total Debt

458572

482426

560319

621331

Deferred Income Tax

-

-

-

-

Minority Interest

1794

1948

1767

2321

Other Liabilities, Total

168697

183364

195354

201865

Total Equity

204339

189049

177806

163468

Redeemable Preferred Stock, Total

-

-

-

-

Preferred Stock - Non Redeemable, Net

6738

2562

312

312

Common Stock, Total

31

30

29

29

Additional Paid-In Capital

107193

106391

105804

101287

Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit)

111168

97809

90520

79559

Treasury Stock - Common

-1658

-847

-1071

-1442

ESOP Debt Guarantee

-

-

-

-

Unrealized Gain (Loss)

-1724

597

-35

-2395

Other Equity, Total

-17409

-17493

-17753

-13882

Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity

1880382

1864660

1873878

1913902

Total Common Shares Outstanding

3029.24

3028.88

2923.88

2905.84

Total Preferred Shares Outstanding

-

-

0.01

0.01

Income Statements

2013

31/12

2012

31/12

2011

31/12

2010

31/12

Net Interest Income

46793

46686

47649

53539

Interest Income, Bank

62970

67298

71858

53539

Total Interest Expense

16177

20612

24209

-

Loan Loss Provision

7604

10458

11336

25809

Net Interest Income After Loan Loss Provision

39189

36228

36313

27730

Non-Interest Income, Bank

30108

27429

29682

32237

Non-Interest Expense, Bank

-49800

-55832

-51273

-46851

Net Income Before Taxes

19497

7825

14722

13116

Provision for Income Taxes

5867

7

3575

2217

Net Income After Taxes

13630

7818

11147

10899

Minority Interest

-227

-219

-148

-281

Equity In Affiliates

-

-

-

-

U.S GAAP Adjustment

-

-

-

-

Net Income Before Extraordinary Items

13403

7599

10999

10618

Total Extraordinary Items

270

-58

68

-16

Net Income

13673

7541

11067

10602

Total Adjustments to Net Income

-457

-192

-212

-99

Income Available to Common Excluding Extraordinary Items

12946

7407

10787

10519

Dilution Adjustment

1

11

17

2

Diluted Net Income

13217

7360

10872

10505

Diluted Weighted Average Shares

3041.6

3015.5

2998.8

2967.8

Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items

4.26

2.46

3.6

3.55

DPS - Common Stock Primary Issue

0.04

0.04

0.02

-

Diluted Normalized EPS

4.38

4.11

4.17

3.55

For fiscal year 2013, the firms interest income decreased 6% to $62.97 billion and net interest income after loans loss provision increased 8% to $39.19 billion. Earned $13.7 billion which was the firms largest profit since the financial crisis and it grew its loan portfolio by 6%. The firm generated $20 billion in regulatory capital, ending the year with a Tier 1 Common ratio of 10.6%.

Financial Assets and Liquidity

Ratio's

2013

2012

2011

Debt to Equity

1.37

1.54

2.13

Total Equity to Total Assets

0.11

0.10

0.10

LT Debt to Total Assets

0.12

0.13

0.17

Tier I Common

12.6%

12.7%

11.8%

Tier I Capital

13.7%

14.1%

13.6%

Dividend Payout

0.01

0.02

0.01

4. Risk

Citi receives the bulk of its profits and earnings from international market. Which has the potential if these countries go through a major economic crisis or a potical crisis then Citi will suffer massive losses or worse.

5.Valuation

Citi today sells for 11x its earnings 2.5x its free cash flow and 0.7x its book value which so that Citi is trading at lower multiples then the other big four banks in the United States. If Citi sold at the same P/E as Wells Fargo then it would sell for $60.90 per share and if it sold the same P/E as JP Morgan then it would sell for $55.25 per share. Today the firm sells for about 8.2x its pretax earnings. If Citi sold at 9x to 10x its pretax earnings then it would sell for $57.69 to $64.10 per share. From todays price to $59.19 per share is should be anyone's buying range, let me be clear I use pretax earnings most of the time to see how much I am willing to pay up for a company. I believe pay 9x to 10x a company's pretax earnings is reasonable way to to see what the fair value of a company. Now lets look at Citis free cash flow per share of $18.87 per share and it currently trades at 2.5x it free cash flow, but if it traded at Wells Fargo free cash flow multiple of 4.6x then it would sell for $86.80 per share. Based on the Firms earnings, book value, free cash flow and selling at lower multiples across the board compared to the other Big Four Institutions, I would buy the stock at today prices. It is very clear that Citi is undervalued and the share price could easily double from where it is at now.

About the author:


Rating: 3.0/5 (4 votes)

Voters:

Comments

vgm
Vgm - 3 months ago
Thanks for an interesting analysis. I agree Citi is significantly undervalued. And Bill Nygren (Trades, Portfolio) would agree with your thesis also:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101585514

WK1900
WK1900 - 3 months ago

Citi is undervalued and for the right reasons. The public at large has lost confidence in this company and other financial companies. Its not what the data shows ...its what the data does not show. The arrogance of the big banks of being too big to fail did/does not translate into more loans being generated on main street. The last several years in the US is proof positive it did not. The 1:7 stock split broke the confidence of some of the institutional holders. Community banks and the smaller banks have gained more % wise than Citi. Keeping a lame stock (like citi) hoping it will rebound may cost you in growth in those sectors that are better adapted to change with a wider moat.

Respectfully submitted,

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