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Why Apple's Shares Will be Worth $100 in 2014

July 03, 2014 | About:



Here's the three main reasons that I'm betting on Apple taking down $100 before the end of this year.

1. Fall's Coming Product Line

Again - the big controversy coming out of earnings last quarter was that despite the beat and despite the stock split and buyback news - there were no new products. This sent everyone into a frenzy.

"Is Apple done innovating?" people mindlessly postulated, working themselves up into a panic thanks to the help of CNBC and others.

Yes, Apple is done innovating. The most fundamentally sound half-trillion dollar company is simply just going to stop making new products. That's exactly what's going to happen.

Give me a break. Have people lost their minds? There's no doubt there's going to be a slew of new products coming out this fall, and they're likely to floor everyone like Apple products have a knack for doing. Just because Apple isn't first out of the gate when it comes to things like the smartwatch and streaming TV, it doesn't mean that when they do introduce products that they're not going to be worth the wait and completely blow people heads off. You just watch.

We just had the same "panic" set in after the WWDC, which is notoriously a software based conference. Even though I was looking for a bit more from the conference, I wasn't surprised when they didn't announce hardware. Some people, on the other hand, were floored that Apple didn't release new products.

Don't worry, they're coming - I assure you. And when they do, they're going to be outstanding products - and right in time for the holidays.

CNET has a perpetually updating fresh list of some of the latest iPhone 6 rumors out there, including wireless charging. If you want a preview of exactly how much heads could spin this holiday season, check it out.

2. Retail Will Pour In, Headlines Keep Pushing $100

Aside from the perception that the stock is "cheaper" now than it once was, headlines are starting to help money pour into Apple. Look at all these headlines that pair Apple stock up with the mystical $100 price point.

There isn't a place we turn where the current headline about Apple, post-split, isn't about the stock and its relation to $100/share. The media has implanted this number into the minds of millions of traders and retail commonfolk saying things like "stocks at $90 usually go to $100," which - despite making absolutely no sense at all - I heard at least 5 times on CNBC during the trading day yesterday.

If Apple does finally hit $100, I'm expecting anchormen/women's heads to just start exploding with excitement.

Lest we forget that people who don't know how to properly value a company on the most fundamental levels (i.e. outstanding shares x share price = market cap) will continue to contend that $100 is "cheap," and will pour into the security here. While I believe $100 remains cheap on a fundamental level, I think that the retail push by "less informed" investors will help push Apple over the $100 hump.

3. Massive Buyback

And then, of course, if Apple can't find the retail bid to do it - why not support your stock by laying out the world's largest stock buyback onto the bid whenever you "consider the price cheap"

People love buybacks because they reduce the amount of outstanding shares and bring more value to the shares already in hand. But, companies also use buybacks as deterrents from bad news - and to hold the bid up in times of unease or distress. The buyback doubles as a nice little security blanket, knowing the company has your back and isn't going to let your investment get clipped too hard anytime soon.

$100 is on the Radar

It's down around $93, pressing its lows of the day after opening up this morning above $94. On another push downward, I'll even consider adding a bit more.

My price target on Apple from when I bought around $520 was over $700. With the split and the buybacks, I think it's simply a question of "when," not "if." When the stock reaches the $700 ($100) point, it may be the first time I consider paring back a little, while letting the rest of my position ride for the long haul. I said in a previous article that I intend to be in Apple for the long term, and that's the truth.

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