This issue makes 30 years I’ve written this column. That’s 389 issues (an average of 13 yearly) since July 16, 1984. Nowadays some writers might post that many times online in a year. I can’t imagine having enough worthwhile advice at that pace–monthly is tough enough.
Looking back, 1984 seems remote. The Berlin Wall stood firm. Crack cocaine, minivans and Apple’s Mac first appeared. Diet Coke was two years old. James W. Michaels, the editor of Forbes, let me do one column. I had no clue I’d get two, much less 389.
Originally, I thought small stocks best. Academics “proved” it. Now I view that as a liquidity trap for fools–and that most leading academics spend too much time counting angels on pinheads to fathom reality.
All equity categories, correctly calculated, create near identical lifelong returns. They just get there via wildly differing paths. Believing otherwise disbelieves capitalism and markets–do so at your mortal soul’s peril. Over time I’ve come evermore to believe in capitalism and less in most else. Regular readers know I like huge stocks in the back half of bull markets, like now. There is a time for everything. The key is figuring out when, and it’s tricky.