The agricultural sector is another example of a fruitful area of idea generation for us over the past few years. Due to weather-related factors, the supply trends have been all over the board, creating high volatility in the stock prices of agriculture-related companies. The volatility in supply is countered by a very strong and steady demand. World population and income levels are growing, driving demand for beef and other protein products. As demand for protein grows, agricultural demand grows with it. At Third Avenue, we are attracted to those situations. Short-term dislocations can produce attractive prices, when the long-term trends are favorable. This means that on occasion we have the opportunity to acquire shares at a discount from our conservatively estimated NAV in the well capitalized companies that we consider to have the ability to compound their NAVs at double digit rates over time. We believe this combination has the potential to generate attractive returns for our shareholders.
We discussed our investment in AGCO (AGCO), a manufacturer of agricultural equipment, in a recent shareholder letter. Another twist on this theme is irrigation. The largest user of freshwater is agriculture. Thus, irrigation demand is connected with the overall demand for food as the world population grows. It is also driven by water scarcity. Only 2.5% of the total worldwide water supply is fresh water and of that only 30% of fresh water is available to humans. Irrigation demand also stems from (i) conversion from flood based to mechanized irrigation, (ii) replacement demand for parts, and (iii) conversion of non-irrigated land. Mechanized irrigation can improve water application efficiency by 40-90% over traditional irrigation methods such as drip. During the quarter, the Fund acquired shares of Valmont Industries. Valmont is the leader in mechanized irrigation equipment with 40% market share.
As a manufacturer of fabricated metal products, Valmont also makes poles, towers and other structures used for utility transmission, outdoor lighting and wireless communication systems. Valmont’s utility business is also facing a supply/demand imbalance, similar to what we observe in agriculture. While the utility business is facing short-term pressures on pricing, we are optimistic about the longer-term prospects of this industry, given an aging electric power infrastructure in North America and growth potential in developing countries. According to the US Department of Energy, investment in electric transmission infrastructure declined from 1980-1999, while electricity consumption increased by approximately 58%, resulting in increased grid congestion and power outages, some of which were very disruptive (e.g., the August 2003 blackout in the Northeast and rolling blackouts in California in 2001). Further, spending on transmission should be positively impacted by the implementation of FERC Order 1000, a series of measures that requires planning for the connection of renewable energy to the electric grid.
We were able to acquire shares of this well-capitalized, well-positioned company which has compounded book value at nearly 16% over ten years, with our cost basis at a 12% discount to our conservatively estimated NAV. The company’s stock declined recently as a result of pricing pressure in the utility segment and weaker irrigation demand after drought-induced record years in 2012-2013. Interestingly, during the quarter, one of Valmont’s competitors in the utility structures business was acquired by Trinity Industries. This could result in better supply/demand characteristics, and in any case, demonstrates potential attractiveness in a resource conversion scenario.
From Third Avenue Value Fund’s 4Q 2014 Portfolio Manager Commentary.
