As Mr. Market Presents More Bargains, Even GuruFocus Users Turn Skeptic

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Sep 30, 2008
At the market turmoil in July, we had poll to see what our users were buying, selling or just waiting. We had more than 70% people buying. Now Dow is around 1000 points lower, more people turned to waiting.


It is depressing to watch your portfolios go down every day, especially down more than 8% in a single day. It is hard to be “Happy Happy, Joy Joy”, as written by our columnist Todd Kenyon. Are you in fear? Do you still want to buy? Or you’d rather to wait?


With these questions we started our survey “Now we are in bear market, what are you doing with your investment?” Now about half of our users are waiting, a little less than half are buying. 3% of users are selling.


Back in July we had a similar poll, we had more than 70% of the users buying! About 25% say they are waiting, and 5% said they were selling.


Apparently even GuruFocus users are turning skeptic. We don’t expect a lot of panicky selling from our users, as most of our users are long term oriented. However, a bearish sign from our users indicate that the market is bottomed?


What are you doing now? Are you buying, selling, or just waiting? Poll:





If you are selling, make sure you are selling not because of fear. We all know this Warren Buffett quote: “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Make sure you are selling because the stocks reached their fair value, or you realized your mistakes that you did not realize before.


If you are waiting, make sure you are not just WAITING. Read Warren Buffett’s shareholder letters again, do a lot of research in the mean time, set the prices that you want to buy regardless stock market conditions. If you are just waiting for a better market condition, you may be disappointed and regret, sooner or later.


If you are buying, make sure you are buying good companies only. Although historically buying at recessions and bear market rewards investors more than buying in bull market, but that is if you buy the right ones. Low quality business may as well bankrupt during recessions and bear market.


If you are buying, make sure you go through your investment decision checklist for every investment idea. If you don’t have an investment decision checklist, make one. We had a great discussion of investment check list before: Investment Decision Checklist


In short term you may still suffer. It is extremely important to know the level of confidence you have for your idea. Only with enough confidence in your research you know what to do if the stock prices decline another 50%.


We are proud that our users are not scared by the current market. Investing rewards those who are willing to learn, rational, and long term focused. We wish all of you prosper. While you are buying, we like to remind you the simple principles that Warren Buffett has been teaching us for a long time:


1. Buy Good Companies Only

2. Buy Simple Business Only

3. Do not Overpay


By the way, GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett’s strategy “buy good companies at fair prices” for the years 1998-2008. We have found, as Warren Buffett told us numerous times, buying companies with “predictable and proven earnings” greatly reduces the investment risks. The returns are also much higher than the market average. The first part of the study will be released today.