The largest detractor from performance for the quarter and past twelve months was Apache (NYSE:APA), the U.S.-based oil and gas exploration and production company. As with most oil and gas exploration companies, Apache’s share price is influenced by the direction of oil prices, which have fallen dramatically and remain low. Our assessment of Apache’s business value is based on the belief that the long-term market clearing oil price is in the mid-$70s. While a decline in near-term commodity prices reduced our estimate of value due to lost interim cash flows, the stock’s decline has significantly exceeded what we think is the true change in the company’s underlying business value. Despite a challenging energy market, we believe the management team has a solid plan for the future, as CEO John Christmann recently changed the company’s capital allocation process to better direct capital to the highest internal rate of return projects, regardless of where they are located. In addition, Christmann replaced the operating heads of each region, changing their compensation metrics to focus on returns. In our view, these improvements strengthen Apache’s ability to maximize its value. We believe most investors are ignoring the value of many Apache assets that will generate substantial cash flow when energy prices increase.
From Biill Nygren and David Herro (Trades, Portfolio)'s Q3 Oakmark Global Select Fund commentary.
