As I read about Walmart's (WMT, Financial) news on lower earnings guidance, it is fair to ask ourselves a couple of questions. Is the company's future doomed? What's next for Walmart? I think Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio)'s comments in "Margin of Safety" can answer these questions.
"Some investors insist on trying to obtain perfect knowledge about their impending investments, researching companies until they think they know everything there is to know about them. They study the industry and the competition, contact former employees, industry consultants and analysts and become personally acquainted with top management. They analyze financial statements for the past decade and stock price trends for even longer. This diligence is admirable, but it has two shortcomings. First, no matter how much research is performed some information always remains elusive; investors have to learn to live with less than complete information. Second, even if an investor could know all the facts about an investment, he or she would not necessarily profit.
"Moreover, business information is highly perishable. Economic conditions change, industries are transformed, and business results are volatile. The effort to acquire current, let alone complete, information is never ending. Meanwhile, other market participants are also gathering and updating information, thereby diminishing any investor's informational advantage.
"Most investors strive fruitlessly for certainty and precision, avoiding situations in which information is difficult to obtain. Yet by the time high uncertainty is resolved, prices are likely to have risen. Investors frequently benefit from making investment decisions with less-than-perfect knowledge and are well rewarded for bearing the risk of uncertainty. The time other investors spend delving into the last unanswered detail may cost them the chance to buy in at prices so low that they offer a margin of safety despite the incomplete information. (Low prices compensate for uncertainty.)"
How is this connected with Walmart's news? It is natural that the market focuses on the short term. If the company discusses its forecast and mentions stagnant earnings, it is only natural to see some drastic price corrections, such as the 10% loss that we saw today. However, when we apply second-level thinking and focus on the real message that was delivered today, it can be narrowed down to: "We will keep making investments to compete." Given that the company is facing strong pressure by retailers such as Costco (COST, Financial) and Amazon (AMZN, Financial), capitalism is forcing one of its participants to fight in order to survive.
Walmart has a lot of leverage, both in terms of name and scale. I think that, at this uncertain time, investors need to understand what is really going on inside the company, as we are well rewarded for our decisions at this time. (Just as Howard Marks (Trades, Portfolio) mentions, it is not only by thinking differently but also by being right that we can expect to achieve alpha.) The key question is: Is there enough margin of safety at current prices to invest as Klarman mentions? That will prove to be the most relevant point.
What do you think?
