Petrobras (PZE, Financial) is the leading producer of oil and gas in Brazil, accounting for roughly 90% of Brazil’s oil production. In 2014, its stock price declined approximately 50% due to a corruption scandal involving kickbacks on procurement contracts, a weakening Brazilian Real, and increasing debt from years of outspending its cash flow. The lower oil price environment and high financial leverage have raised concerns about the viability of funding growth through additional borrowings. The CEO and other senior executives resigned earlier this year and were replaced with a new management team. Investors are skeptical about the company’s ability to rectify its problems and grow production. As a result, it trades at 2.6 times 2015 estimated operating cash flow and at a substantial discount to its net asset value, well below historical levels and that of its peers.
Despite this perfect storm of challenges, the company managed to grow production in the first half of 2015 compared to the first half of 2014. This growth was driven by the company’s leading position in the deepwater fields, also known as “pre-salt,” of the Santos Basin, which is one of the Western Hemisphere’s largest oil discoveries in 30 years. These fields are prolific, low-cost, and should enable Petrobras to maintain or grow production over the long term. In addition to possessing excellent reserves, Petrobras has improved corporate governance: the company hired two independent investigative firms and meaningfully revamped internal governance structures. The new management team is displaying more discipline on capital spending; it has announced plans to reduce capital expenditures by 37% and focus on the company’s most profitable exploration and production projects. Combined with a large scale divestiture program, these efforts should lead to a stronger balance sheet.
After meeting with the new management team in Brazil, along with government officials and industry experts, we decided to add to Petrobras in the second quarter of 2015. We believe the company’s growth prospects and ability to overcome its current challenges are not reflected in its compelling valuation today. On June 30, Petrobras was a 1.5% position in the Fund.
From Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund second quarter 2015 commentary.
