Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY) is a well-capitalized US-based forest products company with high quality assets in the form of 7 million acres of timberland that form one of the most valuable privately owned timber portfolios. It also has a wood products business used in homebuilding and a cellulose fibers business with product used for absorbency in items such as paper towels.
A number of macro headwinds negatively impacted Weyerhaeuser’s common stock price for the quarter: a decline in demand from China which led to pricing declines for Pacific NW logs, continued weak US housing markets which negatively impacted the wood products business, and port strikes and maintenance outages which disrupted the cellulose fibers business. These shorter term concerns did lead to earnings per share cuts for 2015. Despite these near-term macro headwinds, Weyerhaeuser is, in our opinion, well-positioned to compound NAV at a double-digit rate over the longer-term. First, Weyerhaeuser’s timberlands inventory, i.e., trees, are hard assets that can continue to grow; those that aren’t used this year continue to grow and become more valuable the following year. Second, we expect Weyerhaeuser’s cash flow and earnings to materially improve as US home starts recover from the cyclical downturn to more normalized levels. Further, the company has enhanced its timberlands portfolio and divested non-core businesses, cut costs and repurchased shares. While the ultimate timing of a housing recovery is unclear, we believe Weyerhaeuser will benefit when it does. In the meantime, given a 4% dividend yield, we added to our position on weakness in the quarter.
After quarter end, Weyerhaeuser announced a merger deal with Plum Creek Timber Company. Weyerhaeuser also announced that it is looking at strategic alternatives for its cellulose fiber business which could further enhance shareholder value. In our view, the deal with Plum Creek is NAV accretive as we believe it will accelerate cash flow growth, and increase exposure to the US south. Please refer to the Third Avenue Real Estate Value Fund letter for more detail on this transaction.
From Third Avenue Management (Trades, Portfolio)'s Value Fund fourth quarter 2015 portfolio manager commentary.
