David Rolfe Comments on Tractor Supply Company

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Jan 16, 2017

Like Fastenal, Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) is a company we have long admired. Management has executed a disciplined retailing strategy where they have carved out a niche, serving rural land owners with higher than average incomes. The Company has very deliberately positioned itself to be distinct from its competitors, namely Home Depot, Lowe’s, and, to a lesser extent, Wal-Mart, primarily by locating itself in more rural locations and focusing on merchandise that caters to the maintenance needs of a rural lifestyle, in a one-stop shop format (i.e. all-terrain vehicle replacement parts and feed for livestock as pets).

We think the Company's profitability and value proposition will be insulated over time as they have made key tradeoffs to avoid competing with big box retailers, without necessarily impairing returns. As an example, we found evidence that the company’s real estate strategy, on average, has been to simultaneously locate Tractor Supply Company stores further from “big box” competitors, while getting into more densely populated markets. Meanwhile, the Company has managed to lower the build-out and rental costs of their new stores as they have continued to expand the store base aggressively, leading to improved returns - something that is particularly difficult in the brick-and-mortar retail world, where typically new store openings generate a lower level of sales and profitability than mature stores (naturally pressuring return on investment as the company grows). We assume the Company’s continuing store base expansion, as well as a conservative assumption on same store sales, should enable the Company to grow revenues in the mid-to-high single digits over the next several years, with earnings per share growth in the double digits, driven by a combination of flat to modest margin expansion as well as stock buybacks.

When we purchased the stock, it was trading at about 18X NTM earnings, near a five-year low (and well below the nearly 30X seen a few years ago), a rarity in a market where valuations have been extended. The stock had been hit by a few issues in 2016. First, unseasonable winter weather caused a short-term blip in results early in the year; weather, unfortunately, is a recurring risk for this and most other retail businesses, but we do not view odd weather as a long-term, relative issue. Later in the year, the Company was hit by sales weakness in their energy - and agricultural-located geographic markets. However, we think we are closer to the end of a multi-year downturn in these markets, or at least near an inflection point, but recessionary expectations for the Company’s end-markets continue to be built into the stock. So with little risk from further adverse macroeconomic developments, we were pleased that we were presented with an opportunity to establish a position in what we view to be a very high-quality company, generating excellent and stable or improving returns over time, with an above-market growth rate, all at a historically cheap multiple.

From David Rolfe (Trades, Portfolio)'s fourth quarter 2016 Wedgewood Partners investor letter.