Novadaq Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:NVDQ) is a medical imaging company. Its tools, which show blood flow (perfusion), have been clinically proven to dramatically improve outcomes in many types of surgeries, including colon resection (where a segment of colon is removed and the ends are re-attached), breast reconstruction (typically in cancer surgeries), and many other general surgeries. Significant clinical trials are underway with leading medical institutions that will assess the ability of Novadaq devices in guiding complex lymph node surgeries related to the spread of cancer. The company also sells human-based tissue replacement (complementary to breast reconstruction, and potentially useful for diabetic foot ulcer treatment). Shares fell in the fourth quarter due to, what in our opinion was, a misunderstanding of the halting of a clinical trial in colon resection. The company halted the trial (which was to be a larger version of a prior successful trial in the space) because its devices have been proven to be so good that the company couldn’t find doctors willing to forego its use on surgeries needed to create a control group cohort. Another issue holding back the shares is a change of business plan to sell capital equipment to customers over three-to-four years versus an upfront payment, which defers revenue and cash flow. Thus, despite recurring revenues growing at 40-50% rates (half the business), equipment sales growth has slowed to single digits. This has caused overall revenue growth to slow to 25% from about 30%-40% growth. We are assessing the situation, but believe the current multiple reflects the change in business dynamics. Also, because of the model change, more of the company’s revenues will be recurring, making Novadaq more attractive to potential acquirers, particularly at its current valuation.
From Baron Discovery Fund's fourth quarter 2016 commentary.
