American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL - $53)(NASDAQ:AAL)
Although the airlines have always provided a useful consumer service, we feel they have historically been unattractive long-term investment candidates. In the past, the major U.S. airlines lacked pricing power and faced problems related to poor corporate cultures. However, after years of consolidation capped by the merger of US Airways and American Airlines in 2013, the industry has become more mature and disciplined. The three major hub-and-spoke carriers each have strengths in their respective hubs, and their management teams are making wiser decisions about capacity additions and capital allocation. American Airlines’ CEO Doug Parker sees substantial opportunity to grow value as the company completes the US Airways merger integration. He is improving the company’s culture and restoring credibility with employees. Parker believes that American Airlines has around $5 billion of pretax earnings power, which is up 50% from our 2017 estimate, and he has bought back 37% of the company’s shares since the merger closed. With the stock selling for a single-digit multiple of normal earnings power, we believe American Airlines is an attractive investment.
From Bill Nygren (Trades, Portfolio)'s Oakmark Fund fourth quarter 2017 commentary.
