Bill Hester: Is the Job Market Ready for a Recovery?

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Sep 08, 2009
Friday's job data offered confirming evidence neither to those expecting a strong recovery nor to those with more tempered expectations. Whatever opinion an investor came into the day with was probably not swayed by the data. While the rate of job losses continued to slow, the unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high, and measures of labor underutilization crept higher.

The soundest argument of analysts and economists arguing for a strong economic rebound is that the direction of the rate of job losses is moving in the right direction. That trend has been clear. The three-month average change in nonfarm payrolls is now a decline of 318 thousand jobs per month, compared with a loss of 691 thousand jobs for the three-month period ending in March.

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