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Rising Sun, Falling Stocks: Nintendo, Kyocera, Takeda Pharma, Nippon Telephone & Telegraph

November 20, 2009 | About:
Henry W. Schacht

Henry W. Schacht

13 followers
A recent Bloomberg.com article entitled, Japan Stocks Offer Value Bargains, profiles Abhay Deshpande, manager of the First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX). Deshpande's thesis is pretty simple. He says:
After a 20-year bear market, stocks in Japan are very cheap. No other markets in the world have such an abundance of shares that are so far below their intrinsic value.


Mr. Deshpande hasn't received much validation as Japanese stocks continue to perform poorly. Everything from political uncertainty to a strong yen have been offered as possible reasons.

Nonetheless, Japanese bargains are plentiful.

This isn't the first time a value investor arrived at a party before the other guests.

A survey of my own portfolio shows that the weakest performers this year are indeed Japan-based companies. That said, I am adding to existing positions.

Many of First Eagle's Japanese holdings are mentioned in the Bloomberg article. These individual companies encompass a range of industries including:


Aioi Insurance (AIOIY)

Ariake Japan - seasoning manufacturer

Astellas Pharmaceuticals (ALPMY)

Chofu Seisakusho - boilermaker

Daiichikosho - karaoke machines

Fanuc - industrial robots (FANUY)

Keyence - sensors

Nagaileben Co. - medical clothing

Nissay Dowa General Insurance

Secom Co - conglomerate (SOMLY)


It will take time to research them all, but sadly most of these companies are hard to buy and own for US-based investors. To my knowledge, only 4 have ADR's (tickers listed).

One alternative is to buy the First Eagle Global Fund, but that's no fun. For those seeking exposure to Japanese value stocks, dilution is also an issue. First Eagle is a global mutual fund with Berkshire Hathaway, 3M, American Express, and Microsoft among its top holdings.

Good companies, but they don't exactly adhere to the Japanese theme.

Most of us are drawn to people and ideas we agree with. It is for this reason that I focused on the First Eagle article. I do very little top-down valuation work, but my bottom-up research allows me to confirm the "cheap Japan" thesis. I've found several attractive Japanese bargains, which can easily be purchased by individual investors.

In no particular order, they are:

#1 Nintendo (NTDOY) - $30.80

Nintendo has been hurt by a strong yen and weakness in the video game market. Nonetheless, it remains a dominant player in its market despite all the talk about Apple (AAPL). Cash flow is solid and debt is almost nonexistent. In addition, nearly one third of Nintendo's $35 billion market value is sitting on the balance sheet in cash. And the dividend yield is around 5%. In January, the company announced it would continue its current payout level despite current weakness thanks to boatloads of excess cash (around $12 billion). Nintendo is one of the most underresearched well-known companies around. A bonus: Excellent management.

#2 Kyocera (KYO) - $79.20

If you want a cowardly way to invest in solar, Kyocera could be your ticket. The company was founded as Kyoto Ceramics. They make the ceramic parts for solar panels and just about everything else. Need a ceramic knife? In addition, Kyocera is a conglomerate making everything from printers to cell phones.

The real attraction is the balance sheet. Cash stands at nearly $5 billion against debt of $557 million. There's also a sizable securities portfolio. Not bad for a company with a $15 billion market value. The underlying business is being hurt by a strong yen, but should still generate $4+ a share in free cash flow this year. In short, a fascinating company selling near book value.

#3 Takeda Pharma (TKPHY) - $19.67

Takeda was founded in 1781. Not sure it was a pharmaceutical company back then, but it doesn't matter. Today, this is a vibrant company selling drugs for diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and other disorders related to urology, oncology, gastroenterology, and the central nervous system.

Again, there is beauty in the balance sheet. Takeda has almost $9 billion in cash and a multi-billion dollar securities portfolio. It's like a mini Japanese mutual fund with exposure to other pharma companies, chemicals, banking, insurance, and even tires (Bridgestone). Debt is practically nonexistant meaning that over one third of Takeda's market value ($31 billion) is sitting on the balance sheet. Even before adjusting for these excess assets, Takeda trades for less than 10x free cash flow. The gross dividend yield is around 5%.

#4 Nippon Telephone & Telegraph (NTT) - $ 20.46

Last but not least is Nippon, which owns 64% of NTT DoCoMo (its wireless offspring). This stake is worth around $42 billion. That leaves a "stub" worth around $25 billion. Run the numbers and you'll find a tidy little company with steady, substantial cash flow and a solid dividend.

A friend of mine in Hong Kong had the following to say about the conservative nature of Japanese firms in general:
An American fund manager I spoke to in Japan had the perfect quote: "XYZ Company is a topnotch, first rate company that has every yen it ever earned still sitting on its balance sheet.


Certainly the companies I've discussed err on the side of holding too much excess capital. There are worse problems to have in this environment. Perhaps Japanese corporate culture needs a little shaking up, but the value is there.

In the Land of the Rising Sun, stocks should soon follow.

Disclosure: The author owns Nintendo, Nippon, and Takeda. Kyocera probably won't be far behind.


Henry W. Schacht

http://www.lonelyvalue.com/

About the author:

Henry W. Schacht
Henry W. Schacht, CFA is the founder of Schacht Value Investors, an investment management firm serving individuals and institutions. He currently serves as President and Chief Investment Officer. He earned his MBA at the University Of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a BBA in finance from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Schacht is a member of the Association for Investment Management & Research (AIMR), the Investment Analysts Society of Chicago (IASC), and the National Association of Corporate Directors (NACD).

Rating: 3.8/5 (5 votes)

Comments

ksindi
Ksindi - 4 years ago
There is little value to a cash-bloated balance sheet if management doesn't give any of it back. Moreover, the ROEs on most of these businesses are very poor especially since the company is underlevered and they're reinvesting shareholders' money at poor returns.

Regardless of the politics, the Japanese economy seems pretty scary to me especially with the declining population and the seemingly insurmountable debt level. The durat[size= 14px][/size]ion of the debt is decreasing and interest rates can only rise. SCARY!

Note: Please note these are all my personal beliefs and do not reflect those of anyone else or any entity. As of 11/20/2009, I don't own any Japanese-based companies.
hschacht
Hschacht - 4 years ago
KSINDI -

If these companies only sold within the Japanese market, you might have a point regarding Japanese demographics, etc. But they sell globally.

There are also indications that these companies are becoming more willing to part with the cash. Most of them pay very attractive dividends and share repurchases are becoming more common and aggressive.

I've even seen the occasional acquisition. One bonus: These companies don't tend to overpay in buyout transactions. I'd rather invest with these guys long-term than some of our deal-happy American managers.

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