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Ken Heebner buying inflation too

April 16, 2010
stockmanmarc

Cam Hui

3 followers
I recently pointed out that real-time indicators are showing that the economy is rebounding. As the markets have rallied from the reflation trade, my inflation-deflation timer model moved from a "neutral" reading to an "inflation" reading last week, which would move the model portfolio from equities to a basket of commodities (see report here).
Ken Heebner buying inflation too

The model appears to be in good company as I see that Ken Heebner has also put on an inflation bet in his portfolio. Heebner is a portfolio manager with a terrific long term record (though he has struggled in the last couple of years). He has a "swing for the fences" style and tends to make big top-down bets.

I reverse engineered his macro bets and my analysis shows that Heebner has positioned his CGM Focus Fund portfolio for a commodity inflation environment. He is at an overweight position in Materials:

CGM+Materials.JPG

...and Energy:

CGM+Energy.JPG

By contrast, he is underweight in Utilities:

CGM+Utilities.JPG

...and has an implicit short position in the US long bond:

CGM+LongBond.JPG

Long commodities, short bonds and interest sensitives - that sounds like a commodity inflation bet to me.

Cam Hui

http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/

Rating: 3.9/5 (12 votes)

Comments

bradford ryland
Bradford ryland - 4 years ago
if one tracks the progress of gold from 2000 until today ken hebner`s track record while excellent is beaten...ken worked with my brother neal ryland @ new england investment company and so I know first hand how brillant he is, but it is a sign of the times how bad inflation is,in that a person of ken`s

caliber must work so hard to stay even....by the way I have been buying gold since 2000 if hebner wishes to talk call me @my home in spain 34 971701197,,,,thanks bradford ryland

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