Orion Energy Systems Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-K)
Orion Energy Systems Inc. has a market cap of $68.24 million; its shares were traded at around $3.07 with and P/S ratio of 1.04. OESX is in the portfolios of John Rogers of ARIEL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, Chuck Royce of Royce& Associates.
Highlight of Business Operations:Growing Demand for Electricity. Demand for electricity in the United States has grown steadily in recent years and is expected to grow significantly for the foreseeable future. According to the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, $363.7 billion was spent on electricity in 2009 in the United States, up from $219 billion in 1999, an increase of 66%. Additionally, the EIA identified that consumption was 3,576 billion kWh in 2009 and predicts it will increase by 40% to 5,021 billion kWh in 2035. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NAERC, demand for electricity is expected to increase over the next 10 years by approximately 19% in the United States, but generation capacity is expected to increase by only approximately 12% in the United States during that same period. As a result of this rapidly growing demand, the National Electric Reliability Council, or NERC, expects capacity margins to drop below minimum target levels in Texas, New England, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest and the Rocky Mountain area within the next two to three years. According to the International Energy Agency, or IEA, North America is expected to add 698,000 MW of additional capacity at a cost of $2.4 trillion between 2008 and 2030 to reliably meet expected annual growth in demand. Worldwide, the IEA, expects 4,799,000 MW of additional capacity to be required over the same period at a total cost of $13.7 trillion. We believe that meeting this increasing domestic electricity demand will require either an increase in energy supply through capacity expansion, broader adoption of demand management programs, or a combination of these solutions.
Underinvestment in Electricity Transmission and Distribution. According to the Department of Energy, or DOE, the majority of United States transmission lines, transformers and circuit breakers the backbone of the United States T&D system is more than 25 years old. The underinvestment in T&D infrastructure has led to well-documented power reliability issues, such as the August 2003 blackout that affected a number of states in the northeastern United States. To upgrade and maintain the United States T&D system, the Electric Power Research Institute, or EPRI, estimates that the United States will need to invest over $110 billion, or $5.5 billion per year, by 2025. This underinvestment is projected to become more pronounced as electricity demand grows. According to NERC, the growth in electricity demand is expected to outpace the growth in transmission capacity by a significant amount between now and 2015.
Commercial and industrial facilities in the United States employ a variety of lighting technologies, including HID, traditional fluorescents, LED and incandescent lighting fixtures. Our HIF lighting systems typically replace HID fixtures, which operate inefficiently and, according to EPRI, only convert approximately 36% of the energy they consume into visible light. We believe that the U.S. market opportunity for HID retrofits is $9.6 billion. We base this estimate on the most recent EIA Commercial and Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey published in September 2008, which states that a total of 81.9 billion commercial and industrial square feet are estimated to exist in the U.S. We estimate that 20.6 billion of these square feet are eligible for HID retrofits, based upon our analysis of the EIAs market sector data giving consideration to a buildings principal activity or purpose and the related square feet. Based on our experience that each HID fixture covers 450 square feet, approximately 45.7 million HID fixtures would be required to cover the estimated 20.6 billion square feet eligible for HID retrofits, at an estimated average cost per fixture of approximately $210.
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