Companies Ranked by Business Predictability

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What is Predictability Rank?

GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy "buy good companies at fair prices" for the years 1998-2008. We focused on the companies that Warren Buffett likes, which are the companies that have predictable and proven earnings. For details, go to: GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank.

From this study we have developed the concept of Predictability Rank of businesses. We have found strong correlations between the Predictability of Businesses and the long term return of stocks, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4 -Star	3.5-Star	3 -Star	2.5-Star	2 -Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
Average Annualized Gain (Jan. 1998- Aug. 2008)	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%
% that are in loss with 10-year holding period	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%

We can clearly see that companies with higher Predictability Rank had much better stock performances. The possibility of losing money with long term holding period is also greatly reduced.

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Predictability	10-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	12-M EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	Market Cap ($mil)	P/E	PE/5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate	Yield
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	0	30	339.4	3550.635	13.28	0.44	4.10
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	6.7	14.1	16.9	20316.617	18.21	1.29	1.71
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.3	10.8	14.2	6734.779	24.15	2.24	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	6.6	6.8	17.6	6693.029	25.58	3.76	1.62
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19.7	25.3	31.5	2488.794	17.99	0.71	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	18.8	7.7	-3.3	2597.716	18.55	2.41	0.84
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12.9	9.3	1.4	8609.145	18.55	1.99	0.75
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	38.2	20.8	37.2	1003.124	17.67	0.85	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	18.6	17.4	5	13631.493	9.41	0.54	1.65
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	6.2	7.7	6.5	1753.227	23.42	3.04	1.80
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.4	11.1	-1.5	101798.820	18.98	1.71	2.88
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	9.2	9.3	4	45314.004	15.77	1.70	2.02
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	9.2	10.1	3.1	11262.319	22.83	2.26	1.50
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.2	16.2	15.1	421.221	27.03	1.67	1.79
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13	13.7	-15.2	3604.199	20.70	1.51	0.17
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.6	13.2	13.6	4661.819	25.84	1.96	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	4.3	7.2	-4.2	4181.511	23.58	3.28	2.51
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	7.6	11.6	1.4	121.760	23.64	2.04	3.24
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.3	9.8	7.2	254835.109	15.41	1.57	2.24
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	28.8	18.3	21.8	2480.952	14.33	0.78	0.04
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12.2	17.4	2	567.632	18.35	1.05	3.74
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13.8	16.5	6.9	1157.204	21.98	1.33	1.38
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	17	11	-1	1312.243	13.26	1.21	0.30
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14	20.5	4.9	6372.650	16.69	0.81	0.28
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.4	7.9	-2.6	3965.118	12.71	1.61	2.90
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.9	20.2	13.9	1988.872	16.67	0.83	1.39
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	11.4	15.6	14.7	23275.092	9.21	0.59	1.58
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.7	11.6	-1.6	6852.003	18.52	1.60	0.93
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	7.4	12.9	6.1	2984.231	15.02	1.16	1.64
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	5.3	1.5	-7.3	425.942	29.33	19.55	0.00