Companies Ranked by Business Predictability

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What is Predictability Rank?

GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy "buy good companies at fair prices" for the years 1998-2008. We focused on the companies that Warren Buffett likes, which are the companies that have predictable and proven earnings. For details, go to: GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank.

From this study we have developed the concept of Predictability Rank of businesses. We have found strong correlations between the Predictability of Businesses and the long term return of stocks, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4 -Star	3.5-Star	3 -Star	2.5-Star	2 -Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
Average Annualized Gain (Jan. 1998- Aug. 2008)	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%
% that are in loss with 10-year holding period	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%

We can clearly see that companies with higher Predictability Rank had much better stock performances. The possibility of losing money with long term holding period is also greatly reduced.

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Predictability	10-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	12-M EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	Market Cap ($mil)	P/E	PE/5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate	Yield
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	25.6	16.8	-15.7	1119.500	18.08	1.08	3.72
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	4.3	7.1	-21.6	243.700	14.14	1.99	3.09
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	20.6	28	31.9	32889.500	30.21	1.08	0.50
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	32.6	20.3	5.9	1561.100	13.79	0.68	0.80
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	8.5	4.4	-12.7	1246.000	19.65	4.47	2.53
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	20.8	26.9	23.6	14172.500	18.45	0.69	0.91
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13.2	9.5	4.8	9960.300	22.03	2.32	0.97
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	16.2	11	7.2	4284.300	23.15	2.10	1.27
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	11.3	11.7	11.8	2769.500	18.76	1.60	1.97
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	27	28.8	75	13725.300	7.50	0.26	1.26
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	23.5	22.7	-5.4	3154.200	22.42	0.99	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	18.4	12.6	12	5387.900	32.79	2.60	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	9.9	2	30.3	4320.400	36.90	18.45	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	5.9	6.2	9.2	45467.398	10.32	1.66	1.90
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19.8	33.2	-3	13623.300	26.95	0.81	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12.6	7.3	9.9	11793.800	21.10	2.89	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19.1	17	36.9	49683.398	20.79	1.22	0.40
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	11.8	13.9	6.4	5681.400	23.87	1.72	0.95
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	45.2	41.3	-47.3	766.100	2.96	0.07	0.61
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	45.2	41.3	-47.3	693.900	2.69	0.07	0.67
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	7.2	14.4	8.3	69132.500	11.17	0.78	3.96
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12	29	9.1	445.500	15.65	0.54	0.41
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	0	6.6	1.7	2868.200	32.36	4.90	1.50
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	8.9	5	17	18.900	12.42	2.48	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13.9	11.1	3	8277.600	17.42	1.57	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	7.7	4.9	59.6	181588.000	18.80	3.84	2.21
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	7.7	4.9	59.6	184341.000	18.87	3.85	3.41
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.3	12.9	12.8	8811.300	28.65	2.22	0.77
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13.1	11.3	1.4	45.400	6.92	0.61	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	27.6	21	-1.1	1658.900	14.81	0.71	2.08